New YouGov polling on party Brexit awareness highlights the challenges facing LAB

October 1st, 2019

With the coming general election looking set to be a battle between parties that back Leave and and those that back Remain this YouGov polling on perceptions of the Brexit stance of each party looks be a good pointer.

As can be seen Johnson/Cummings have made progress with Leave voters that the Tories are pro-Brexit a finding that could be important given the Farage pitch of “we are more pure on Brexit than Johnson”

My guess, however,  is that on a seat by seat basis in the general election the Tories will take the lion’s share of the anti-Brexit vote in places where they’ve a good chance of winning.

Corbyn’s numbers for  LAB are seriously problematic with almost zero movement over the past six months – the product of having no clear view on what is the big issue of the moment.

The LDs with first their controversial “Bollocks to Brexit” rhetoric and then with their commitment to revoke Article 50 if they won a majority appears to have got through to their key constituency – remain voters.   Swinson’s team will also be pleased that they head the list of remain-backing parties.

Does it all matter? My guess is yes given that Brexit is likely to be a key trigger for election. During the full five weeks of the campaign other issues could emerge and that might help Team Corbyn or it might not.

One thing we don’t know about the next election is who will be the incumbent PM and who the leader of the opposition.

Mike Smithson