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Month: September 2019

After more good polls Warren is getting close to an evens chance for the nomination

After more good polls Warren is getting close to an evens chance for the nomination

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Chart Betdata.io The biggest political betting market in the UK at the moment is on the WH2020 Democratic nomination where poll after poll, national and state, are seeing Elizabeth Warren getting closer to Biden and in some case being in first place As a general rule betting at these odds so far out seems crazy. The nomination won’t be sorted out till July next so there’s a long time to wait for settlement. Also anything could happen. Warren’s soaring position…

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The Dogs that Haven’t Barked (Yet)

The Dogs that Haven’t Barked (Yet)

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Public schoolboys should never underestimate girly swots (Joanna Cherry QC, Lady Hale, Gina Miller). Nor should Tory Ministers, though judging by their reaction since the judgment, they seem to be doing everything possible to show they still don’t believe the law applies to them. Rees-Mogg, a man without any legal training and author of an execrable history book, has reportedly informed Cabinet that the decision is wrong and a constitutional coup. Gove has suggested that some judges in lower courts…

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To add to BoJo’s woes it’s Corbyn not the PM who’ll decide when there’ll be an election

To add to BoJo’s woes it’s Corbyn not the PM who’ll decide when there’ll be an election

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PMs without majorities shouldn’t be able to call elections The Fixed-term Parliament Act was the most lasting constitutional change to come out of the 2010 to 2015 Conservative Liberal Democrat coalition. It was always said that it was unnecessary because the main opposition party would always vote for an election if that was offered as we saw in April 2017. That thinking has changed this past month with Corbyn’s LAB not taking the bait. He knows that the new parliamentary…

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Compared with the 2016 “Enemies of the People” Mail coverage today’s tabloids appear quite restrained

Compared with the 2016 “Enemies of the People” Mail coverage today’s tabloids appear quite restrained

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While watching the Supreme Court verdict yesterday morning I wondered quite how the strident pro-Brexit tabloids would cover it. We all remember the very powerful Daily Mail front page after the first Gina Miller case in the High Court and I was expecting something along the same lines. Well as can be seen above that hasn’t happened. The Mail links its attacks to Johnson’s comment and the Express reminds us yet against of the 17.4m.  The Sun’s front page hardly…

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This is bigly yuge

This is bigly yuge

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NBC News has confirmed: House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will announce later today that she now backs a formal impeachment inquiry, according to two Democratic sources close to her. https://t.co/sZpxsW3GPB — Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) September 24, 2019 I must confess I wasn’t expecting Trump to be impeached during his first term, given the make up of the Senate and the high bar to convict a President the Democratic Party controlled House of Representatives would not begin impeachment hearings but as NBC…

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On the betting markets punters move away from Brexit happening in line with Johnson’s timetable

On the betting markets punters move away from Brexit happening in line with Johnson’s timetable

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No deal in 2019 drops to an 18% chance Brexit happening in 2019 drops to an 32% chance – was 60%+ UK to leave by October 31st down to a 20% chance How the Supreme Court decision has had an impact Inevitably today has seen a lot of activity on the Brexit linked betting markets as our charts of Betfair movements from Bedata.io show. The broad consensus of punters is that Brexit is less likely to happen in 2019. There’ve…

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Devastating defeat for Boris Johnson – and perhaps Brexit

Devastating defeat for Boris Johnson – and perhaps Brexit

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  But will he prorogue again? The ruling from the Supreme Court today that the government acted unlawfully in proroguing parliament for as long as it did, when it did, is nothing but a devastating defeat for a government which has no majority, no great mandate and no obviously workable plan. In summary, the Supreme Court ruled that advice to prorogue was unlawful because it prevented parliament from performing its constitutional role and that though prorogation is clearly a lawful…

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