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Month: September 2019

We shouldn’t look much past Lindsay Hoyle as next Speaker

We shouldn’t look much past Lindsay Hoyle as next Speaker

But if there is to be another female Speaker, Eleanor Laing is the better bet The last few weeks seem to have been filled with as many attempts to defy convention and accepted norms of rules and behaviour within Westminster as possible. There’s a certain irony, therefore, that in the election to replace John Bercow as Speaker, a convention many MPs may feel bound to respect a convention – that the Speakership should alternate between the main parties – which…

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Europe and the Security Schism

Europe and the Security Schism

After several centuries of slowly drifting apart, the Eastern Roman Empire’s Orthodox Church and what became known as the Roman Catholic Church of Rome split. This difference, due to arguments about doctrine and pre-eminence of Pope and Patriarch, ended up having continental consequences. The gulf widened over time, until the Fourth Crusade in the 13th century. Due to the persuasive brilliance (if strategic foolishness) of Venice’s doge, Enrico Dandolo, this holy war was diverted from Jerusalem to target Constantinople. A…

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September 2019 Local By-Election Review

September 2019 Local By-Election Review

Votes Cast, Share, Change (in votes and seats) Conservatives 9,961 votes (34% unchanged on last time) winning 9 seats (unchanged on last time) Liberal Democrats 8,000 votes (27% +12% on last time) winning 4 seats (+2 seats on last time) Labour 7,914 votes (27% -7% on last time) winning 6 seats (+1 seat on last time) Scottish National Party 1,202 votes (4% unchanged on last time) winning 0 seats (unchanged on last time) Green Party 1,170 votes (4% -1% on…

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Johnson’s “Surrender Bill” rhetoric – cutting through ?

Johnson’s “Surrender Bill” rhetoric – cutting through ?

A guest slot by Egg To call it the surrender bill, do you have to truly believe we can pressure the EU into an exit favourable to us by threatening EU with No Deal, or use it with ulterior motive? And is it really a differential, or does it preach to the perverted and those already on board? Let’s get to the bottom of these questions. First lets analyse why its important to leave No Deal on table in the…

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An overnight local election result that highlights how difficult it will be to call GE2019

An overnight local election result that highlights how difficult it will be to call GE2019

Icknield (Luton) result: LAB: 36.7% (-5.6)CON: 35.4% (-8.8)LDEM: 25.6% (+12.1)GRN: 2.3% (+2.3) Labour GAIN from Conservative. — Britain Elects (@britainelects) September 26, 2019 We’ve seen big movements in the polls in recent months with Farage’s and the LDs move forward very strongly the latter often near tripling their GE2017 GB vote share of 7.6%. The local by-election above shows how the LD resurgence is going to make general election predictions that much harder. Swinson’s party will go into the election…

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With Trump in trouble a look at the best betting markets

With Trump in trouble a look at the best betting markets

While we have been mostly focused on the high octane politics currently in the UK there’ve been big developments in the US which raise questions over whether Donald Trump will win a second term in November 2020. Earlier in the week the Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi started the impeachment process in the House of Representatives. As well as everything else what is driving this is what the President said to the PM of Ukraine in an effort to get what…

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These perceptions of Johnson could be critical in an election campaign

These perceptions of Johnson could be critical in an election campaign

The above detailed data from today’s YouGov/Times poll should be of concern to the PM’s advisors as they wrench up the election rhetoric. The worst figures, I’d suggest, are on his perceived competence and whether he’s regarded as honest. On the first measure just 33% think he is competent against 50% who don’t. The honesty split of 22% honest to 52% dishonest and the fact that barely half of CON voters were ready to say “honest” opens up possible lines…

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First post-Supreme Court polling finds the LDs main beneficiary

First post-Supreme Court polling finds the LDs main beneficiary

Survation Mail post Supreme Court poll votingCON 27% -2LAB 24% =LD 22% +4BREX 16% -1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 26, 2019 Survation/Mail poll. How would you vote in new EU referendumRemain 53%Leave 47% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 26, 2019 Survation Mail poll best PMJohnson 41%Swinson 21%Corbyn 18% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 26, 2019 Survation/Mail poll "Should Johnson say sorry to the Queen"Yes 62%No 27%DK 11% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 26, 2019