Halloween’s going to be a massive moment in British politics and it is hard to predict what’ll happen

September 17th, 2019

When I went on my holiday two and a half weeks ago TSE and others made a big deal about this being an occasion when big political stories seem to break. Well that the events of the last two and a half weeks have more than proved that theory.

Well I’m now heading back overland from Andalusia after my holiday in the Osborne (no relation) sherry town of El Puerto de Santa MarĂ­a and will be back in the UK on Wednesday.

However you look at it the final day of October is going to be an extraordinary day in British politics. Even if the EU issue has been resolved by then, which I doubt, this will still mark the end of the, at times, controversial Speakersrship of ex-CON MP John Bercow.

Chances are, though, that the EU exit won’t have been resolved and there could be a mighty battle going on whether Johnson, if he’s still PM then, has sent the letter to the EU asking for an extension of the Article 50 process as he is required to do by law.

It might be, of course, that Johnson has been able to agree a revised version of TMay’s deal with the EU and that that has been approved by the House of Commons. It is the latter which I find hard to envisage. The anti-Brexiteers have got their tails up, there is increasing talk of not just another referendum but revoking Article 50. If that happens those that blocked TMay in the spring are going to feel a bit sick.

It might be as well, that Johnson has decided to defy the law that was passed earlier in the month and not sent the letter. In which case we can expect a mighty legal battle going on with the prospect of him being injuncted and then maybe even going to prison.

All this is without today’s hyped ruling by the Supreme Court on the legality of the prorogation.

So many things are possible and in the current environment nothing should be ruled out.

Mike Smithson