Boris Johnson becomes Rudderless as the Conservative broad church continues to fracture

September 7th, 2019

Following on from last night’s four point lead with Survation today we saw a Panelbase with a Tory lead of just three percent.

But tonight YouGov and Opinium see much larger Conservative leads

So no one accuse the pollsters of herding! For me the most interesting aspect from the supplementaries released so far Opinium is that Boris Johnson’s personal ratings are falling, as we saw with Survation last night.

Opinium found that ‘Johnson’s personal ratings have been dented after his bruising week in the Commons. Now only just over a third (36%) think he would be the best prime minister, down from 41% last month.’

Falling leadership ratings are usually a prelude to a fall in voting intention figures a few weeks later. Losing your brother and a cabinet minister in short order will have an impact. I would expect other cabinet ministers and sub cabinet minister to follow Rudd. If Boris Johnson brings the Queen into the political arguments over breaking the law then I expect his ratings to fall further. Instead of trying to heal and unite the Tory party Boris Johnson splitting it could things get messy for him, especially if he quits rather than follow the law.

There’s polls from Deltapoll and BritainElects due as well tonight, but due to a long and cold day at the Test match, I probably will not be able to cover those polls tonight.


Update – ComRes/BritainElects polling