Browsed by
Month: September 2019

Polling analysis: One in three CON GE2017 Remainers now say they’ll vote Lib Dem

Polling analysis: One in three CON GE2017 Remainers now say they’ll vote Lib Dem

Team Cummings-Johnson working hard for Jo Swinson’s party Thanks to Paula Surridge of the University of Bristol for first picking up this trend that an increasing and now sizeable chunk of CON Remainers from 2017 have now switched to the LDs. This is based on Opinium polls which very helpfully provide cross tabs for what those sampled did at the last election broken down into their referendum choice. The trend is such that former CON voters could be rivalling LAB-LD…

Read More Read More

An interim government would need more than just a PM

An interim government would need more than just a PM

There has been much speculation in recent weeks about the possibility of the opposition parties and ex-Tory refuseniks coming together to oust this government and install an interim government, tasked with a very limited role of negotiating an Article 50 extension, promptly followed by a GE. (A variant of this proposal would have the interim government stay in office long enough to call a second EU referendum, but that seems vanishingly unlikely). Like many suggestions for resolving the impasse, this…

Read More Read More

Where the Cummings “People vs Parliament” plan might stumble: LAB voters significantly less concerned about Brexit

Where the Cummings “People vs Parliament” plan might stumble: LAB voters significantly less concerned about Brexit

How will this affect the campaign? There seems to be little doubt that the Tories will take hits from the SNP and the Lib Dems in the coming General Election. On top of that there could be messy situations in seats where Tory MPs who have been sacked stand again under a different flag potentially splitting the blue vote. If the Tories are to stay in the game and possibly win a majority then they need to take LAB seats…

Read More Read More

How strong is Trump’s Senate firewall?

How strong is Trump’s Senate firewall?

A guest slot from Fishing Almost three years ago, a few days after Trump was elected, I wrote a thread on this site saying that the Democrats would be able to find an excuse to impeach Trump if they gained control of the House in 2018 for that reason, 2019 would be the peak year of danger for Trump in this respect but I expected that the Senate would acquit, because of its likely Republican majority following the Midterms. Given…

Read More Read More

The booby trap. Prime Ministers under the Fixed Term Parliaments Act 2011

The booby trap. Prime Ministers under the Fixed Term Parliaments Act 2011

We are used to American presidents dominating their country’s politics.  “Commander in chief” can be understood in more than one way, given how the role has developed. It was not always thus. For most of the nineteenth century, American presidents were chiefly distinctive for their lack of distinction. In the sixty year period between Andrew Jackson to Teddy Roosevelt, only Abraham Lincoln really stood out for his achievements. Taken as a group, they were strikingly anonymous.   Taking the very broadest…

Read More Read More

A confidence vote to get rid of PM Johnson could happen next week

A confidence vote to get rid of PM Johnson could happen next week

The Betfair 69% on it taking place this year looks a decent bet A leading SNP MP, Stewart Hosie, has told the BBC that there could be a confidence vote in Johnson as early as next week. If this happens, given the current Commons numbers, Johnson would almost certainly lose and then, under the FTPA, there would a fortnight under which an alternative government could be formed and if not a general election would be triggered. From what I can…

Read More Read More

LAB close the gap by 4 with Opinium

LAB close the gap by 4 with Opinium

Latest Opinium hasCON 36% – 1LAB 24% +3LD 20% +3BRX 11%-1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 28, 2019 Latest Opinium poll has the LDs the first choice of Remain voters, ahead of LAB, for the first time — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 28, 2019 Johnson leads Corbyn by 37% to 16% as to who would make the best PM – Opinium — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 28, 2019 More to follow

Tommyknockers. The death of the old Conservative party

Tommyknockers. The death of the old Conservative party

Stephen King has produced some dross. One of his worst is a book called Tommyknockers, the premise of which is that an alien spacecraft is found buried in the woods in Maine, and it then starts a creeping possession of the minds and bodies of the local townsfolk, until finally they mutate into the form of the aliens who flew in it. Stephen King himself has stated that he regards this as an awful book. Nevertheless, it provides a good…

Read More Read More