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Month: August 2019

The flaw in going into an election about “the will of the people” is that those thinking Brexit was wrong have a 6% lead

The flaw in going into an election about “the will of the people” is that those thinking Brexit was wrong have a 6% lead

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This rather narrows the target audience This polling Tracker from YouGov has been asked at least twice a month since the 2016 referendum and the big trend is that there has been a shift from those thinking Brexit was right to those thinking that brexit was wrong. This matters, I would suggest, if there is to be an election which is presented as being about the People vs the Politicians as is being suggested by many commentators this morning. For…

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After an eventful day three Questions from CycleFree

After an eventful day three Questions from CycleFree

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Why is the current Tory government so unwilling to ask voters  – in a General Election (or via a referendum) or their representatives in Parliament – whether they want to leave the EU on the basis of no withdrawal agreement and with no transitional stage? How does the government think that such a decision (a No Deal exit) – and the means by which it is effected – will gain and maintain any consensus, and for how long? What arguments…

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The betting markets respond to Johnson’s Charles the First Move

The betting markets respond to Johnson’s Charles the First Move

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A no deal brexit seen as more likely UK seen as more likely to leave by Oct 31st My view is that this is Downing Street’s response to the agreement yesterday between all the opposition parties on the best way of stopping no deal. Number 10 can see the challenges ahead so why not use what power it has to curtail parliamentary time? The question is now how will opposition parties and Speaker Bercow react to what is clearly a…

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The change in the parliamentary arithmetic since he became PM makes Johnson’s task harder

The change in the parliamentary arithmetic since he became PM makes Johnson’s task harder

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More ex-ministers expected to join the Tory rebels It is worth reminding ourselves that for all but two days of its life the Johnson government has been able to operate without the need to face parliamentary scrutiny.  It has been able to control the media narrative and dominate the headlines. That all changes next Tuesday when MPs return after the summer recess. One thing that will be different is that the parliamentary arithmetic, already very tight, will be even less…

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Just because TMay found it easy getting MPs to the vote for GE2017 doesn’t mean that it will be the same for Johnson

Just because TMay found it easy getting MPs to the vote for GE2017 doesn’t mean that it will be the same for Johnson

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There is a widespread assumption, based on what happened with Theresa May two and a half years ago, that prime ministers still have the power to the name election date in spite of the FTPA. This is because it is said that the main opposition party will always have to back holding an election or else it will look weak. But given today’s “anti-no deal” agreement between the opposition parties I wonder if that still holds particularly if Johnson/Cummings want…

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Before we can make judgements about the outcome of an early general election we need new Scotland only polling

Before we can make judgements about the outcome of an early general election we need new Scotland only polling

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The last one was in June There’s been a lot of GB voting intention polling since Mr Johnson became the new Tory leader and Prime Minister but none of it has been Scotland specific. One thing we do know is that is can be highly misleading keying the latest GB poll shares into Baxter and getting anything that is relevant to Scotland. North of the border, as we all know, is the part of the UK which has seen the…

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