The big Brexit betting divide: 53% to 47% that the UK WON’T exit the EU by Oct 31st

August 6th, 2019

Chart Betfair movements from Betdata.io

Do those risking their cash think Boris is bluffing?

At 6am this morning it looked as though there was going to be crossover in the Halloween UK exit from the EU betting with more money going on it actually happening than not. Since then the market has been turned back to no – that there won’t be an exit by that date.

It would seem, therefore that the Cumming/Johnson line is not being believed by those ready to risk their cash. In other words they think the two are bluffing.

Somehow the strident assertions that an October 31st exit is inevitable appear to be a case of “they protesteth too much”. BJohnson doesn’t have a good record of always sticking to what he has said.

This is a great market to watch though I’m not confident enough to assert that it is wrong.

Mike Smithson