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Month: August 2019

The hugely different findings we are getting when the “Johnson v Starmer” best PM question is asked

The hugely different findings we are getting when the “Johnson v Starmer” best PM question is asked

One of the features of current polling is that we are getting very different findings for the best Prime Minister question as the chart above shows. While the Starmer figures are in a narrow range of 31%-35% the Johnson numbers have a spread of 30%-48%. Could it be the pollsters’ formats that impact on this. While YouGov has Starmer ahead and Opinium has it very close the most prolific pollster, Redfield and Wilton, consistently have Johnson with substantial leads. I…

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Boris Johnson Invites Himself to the Battle of Ipsus

Boris Johnson Invites Himself to the Battle of Ipsus

After Alexander the Great died, his actual successors were a newborn baby and a half-brother who suffered learning difficulties. Unsurprisingly, his cadre of incredibly capable generals took real power and soon fell out, leading to the warring era of the Diadochi (Successors). Excepting Perdiccas, who reigned as regent for the few years immediately after Alexander’s death, Antigonus Monopthalmus came closest to uniting the vast realm that the Macedonians had conquered. He was pre-eminent amongst the Diadochi, with as much power…

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A general election could unlock a restoration at Stormont

A general election could unlock a restoration at Stormont

Brexit isn’t the only issue stoking the tensions in Ulster Northern Ireland rarely gets much coverage from the mainland British press. Riots generate a fraction of the coverage that a similar one in England or Scotland (never mind London) would get; the recent Harland and Wolff closure was only of interest because of a ship that sank 107 years ago; its sporting competitions are, like its politics, a different world. Here be dragons. For once, however, Northern Ireland can’t be…

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This is not a government with any real support for its approach and main policy

This is not a government with any real support for its approach and main policy

The unelected PM without a mandate has a big credibility problem https://t.co/TMrSpjOb3v — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 30, 2019 New: More say government wrong to prorogue parliament – but Leavers are happy #Brexit pic.twitter.com/lcItRpbeby — Ben Page, Ipsos MORI (@benatipsosmori) August 30, 2019 New What is closing parliament for? Most don't believe No 10 pic.twitter.com/MJwwtybAQR — Ben Page, Ipsos MORI (@benatipsosmori) August 30, 2019 The government stopping Parliament from meeting between mid-September and mid-October is… Acceptable: 31%Not acceptable: 53% via…

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BJohnson – the politician who keeps getting overstated in the polls

BJohnson – the politician who keeps getting overstated in the polls

Do voters have second thoughts when faced with him on the ballot paper? Back in 2001 the fledgling YouGov polling company first came to our attention with its survey of CON members ahead of the leadership ballot. There was never any doubt that IDS would beat the pro EU Ken Clarke but this new polling company uniquely then using the internet scored a spectacular success by getting the result within one percent. Four years later it was DDavis versus Cameron…

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Then what?

Then what?

The tweet from @TeamSaj quoting what he said in the C4 debate has been deleted. But here is what he said. You can’t delete that. https://t.co/1L5iQgtjAv — Krishnan Guru-Murthy (@krishgm) August 29, 2019 When I was younger, I casually enjoyed those Choose-Your-Own-Adventure books. For those of you that were not nerdy male teenagers in the 1980s, these were books with non-linear structures where you were presented with a series of choices with page numbers.  You made your choice and you…

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The current most active UK betting market is on whether Article 50 will be revoked

The current most active UK betting market is on whether Article 50 will be revoked

Yesterday’s announcement by the Prime Minister that there will be a Queen’s speech in mid October meaning that the number of parliamentary days available for debating Brexit has been drastically reduced has led to to a lot of betting. The current busiest market in terms of money traded is the Betfair one above on whether article 50 will be revoked. Currently that’s rated as a 25% chance but things are developing all the time and this could move up or…

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The Tangled Web that has evolved

The Tangled Web that has evolved

We should not have been surprised. Johnson has never had much desire to be held accountable. Not as London Mayor. Nor as Foreign Secretary. Even when he misspoke (to put it at its most charitable) over Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, his response was petulant and grudging. He went out of his way to avoid scrutiny at the start of his campaign to become Tory leader. This is not a politician who enjoys debate and argument, willing to test his ideas, face challenge….

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