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Month: July 2019

On what’s currently the biggest UK political betting market punters make it a 35% chance that there’ll be an no deal Brexit this year

On what’s currently the biggest UK political betting market punters make it a 35% chance that there’ll be an no deal Brexit this year

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Betdata.io chart of Betfair price movements The above market was put up a few weeks ago by Betfair and has yet to be discussed on PB. In terms of the level of betting it is by far the current biggest market and one where it is quite hard to judge. On the face of it the Johnson regime appears determined to leave by October 31st and it is hard to square his position with what is a big red line…

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(UPDATED) Could Welsh Labour be about to experience a near wipe-out similar to that which Scottish Labour saw at GE2015?

(UPDATED) Could Welsh Labour be about to experience a near wipe-out similar to that which Scottish Labour saw at GE2015?

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A new Welsh Political Barometer poll by @YouGov will be published tomorrow by @ITVWales The results go well beyond ‘gosh’ territory, or even ‘blimey’: by some way the most dramatic poll I have ever analysed. And in some respects a genuinely historic poll for Welsh politics. — Roger Awan-Scully (@roger_scully) July 28, 2019 It is not often that all eyes are on Welsh politics but yesterday’s Tweet from the respected Professor Roger Scully of Cardiff University has really set things…

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Johnson’s first net approval ratings are 33 points lower than TMay when she entered Number 10 in 2016

Johnson’s first net approval ratings are 33 points lower than TMay when she entered Number 10 in 2016

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As well as the voting intention surveys this weekend we have had the first approval ratings from Opinium on Johnson in polling carried out since he entered Number 10. A total of 28% said they approved of the way he was handling his job compared with 31% saying the disapproved. This gives a net figure of minus three. Opinium carry ask such question every two weeks and have been doing so for at least a decade. Looking back to July…

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Plus ça change …..Boris’s first few days have followed TMay’s 2016 footsteps

Plus ça change …..Boris’s first few days have followed TMay’s 2016 footsteps

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Less than a week is, of course, far too short a time to make a comparison, especially one which will infuriate Boris fans. Who cares? They have their man as PM. They can take a bit of teasing. So here goes. Our new PM seems to be following in the precise footsteps of the old PM. On ascending to No 10, speeches about unity in the country and party. A brutal and wholesale clear-out of the old guard to create…

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Jared O’Mara’s likely resignation should prompt another look at extending proxy voting in the Commons

Jared O’Mara’s likely resignation should prompt another look at extending proxy voting in the Commons

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The current restrictions help neither the public nor MPs Parliament is – and is meant to be – a tough arena. MPs and ministers take critically-important decisions and need to be accountable for them. Ideas and arguments need to tested and pitted against one another. Failures (and perceived failures) will be pounced on, often ruthlessly. Unfortunate ministers and shadow ministers who make the wrong mistake at the wrong time find themselves at the centre of a political storm often out…

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Another Westminster by-election possibility opens up for the LDs

Another Westminster by-election possibility opens up for the LDs

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Ex-Tory, Heidi Allen campaigning for the LDs in Brecon and Radnorshire  With Brecon & Radnorshire voting on Thursday there’s a possibility that Sheffield Hallam could follow soon after If the betting markets have this right then the Lib Dems look set to gain the Brecon and Radnorshire seat from the Conservatives in the by-election that takes place next Thursday. Some bookies rate their chances at 1/12 so to win £1 you would have to risk £12. Although the consistency voted…

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Three paths to instability

Three paths to instability

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We now have the archetypal scenario of the irresistible force meeting the immovable object. Boris Johnson has now made so many “October 31 unless the backstop gets it” speeches that it’s time to believe him: if he rowed back from it now, Farage would eat him alive, and the ERG would consume the remains. The EU has said so often that they will not alter, let alone remove, the backstop that it is inconceivable that they will even contemplate it. …

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Lazy Summers but politics can go on

Lazy Summers but politics can go on

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In An Italian Education, Tim Parks describes the wonderfully languorous routine of an Italian summer: the shutting down of all but essential services in hot, humid cities leaving them to tourists, the departure for the coast, the gathering of the extended family, the early mornings to enjoy an espresso outside when the day is cool, the encampment at the same spot on the beach amongst the ombrelloni, neatly and beautifully laid out, la bella figura being quite as important when little…

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