In Brecon and Radnorshire the Remain parties are united and the big battle is between the pro-Brexit ones

June 29th, 2019

Letter to B&R voters from ex-CON MP Chris Davies

The start of a new politics?

A striking feature of the August 1st Brecon & Radnorshire by-election is that it appears that all the pro-Remain parties including the Greens and PC have decided to stand aside and get behind the Liberal Democrats who, of course, held the seat until GE2015. So unlike other previous elections there will be a single remain choice. Meanwhile, as can be seen from the Chris Davies residents’ letter above the Tory big fight is with BXP to be the choice of Leave.

There is, of course, no mention, of Farage’s party in the letter but clearly that is what is worrying the blue team. It is bad enough having the man convicted of making false expenses claims as your candidate without having to contend with serious opposition that the BXP poses. In Peterborough, of course, the Brexit Party came within a few hundred of taking the seat from Labour.

My guess is that by election day, August 1st,  the Tories will be helped by Johnson being the new leader but Farage cannot afford to take his foot off the gas and not put in a hard effort in B&R. Every by-election has to be seen as an opportunity to further the party.

It appears that UKIP will also have a candidate there.

The remain alliance approach could be a model for future elections including an early general election. Under first part the post  having one or two of the parties standing aside in seats where another of them appears to have a good chance seems a good strategy without a formal link.

If there is an early general election I would expect this practice to be widespread.

In the betting the LDs remain 1/5 favourite to re-take the seat.

Mike Smithson