With Johnson looking a near certainty the big betting focus is on who’ll join him in the final 2

June 17th, 2019

My 13/1 “final 2” bet on Stewart looking promising

Last week I placed a small bet with Ladbrokes on Rory Stewart at 13/1 making the final two in the Conservative leadership contest. The response I got on Twitter was interesting and with most saying I was wasting my money.

Almost whenever I publicise a bet people interpret this a prediction which is not the case. Like all these things it is worth repeating that bets are assertions of value. You have a flutter if you think that chances of something happening are greater than the odds on offer. Given the Ladbrokes price at the time rated him as about a 7% chance my gut instinct that it was greater than that has been shared by others.

After last night’s performances in the Channel 4 debate the price on Stewart getting to the members’ ballot stage has been tightened to 2/1 He’s level pegging with Gove while the favourite to make the postal ballot is Hunt at 6/4. Javid is 12/1 while Raab has eased to 16/1.

Interestingly punters on the Betfair exchange rate Rory better than that.

Given the MP declarations that we know about he has a massive challenge just to stay in the race beyond tomorrow lunchtime. He’s now claiming to have the backing of 33 MPs.

My guess looking forward is that a lot depends on how well Gove does and whether he will shed votes.

I do love Tory leadership races because of the step by step approach.

Mike Smithson