On Betfair alone £3.5m has already been wagered on the CON leadership fight

June 11th, 2019

And a further £1.3m has been gambled on the next PM market

Here is tonight’s chart showing the movement on the Betfair exchange next CON leader market where the total gambled has now topped £3.5m.

There’s been very little significant movement and I don’t expect to see much change until Thursday evening when the result of the first CON MP ballot is announced. Johnson is still odds-on favourite and it will be interesting to see whether or not he has met expectations in the first ballot.

You cannot assume that not all those MPs who have made declarations of support are likely in the secret ballot to vote that way. In 2005 then favourite David David has more declarations than actual votes.

Mike Smithson