For the first time ever neither LAB nor CON occupy the top two slots in a national Westminster voting intention poll

May 31st, 2019

LD 24%
BXP 22%
LAB 19%
CON 19%

As had been leaked earlier yesterday evening the latest Times YouGov poll has historic changes in the party order with the Lib Dems on 24% two points ahead of BXP with Labour and the Tories both on 19%.

This has simply not happened before in the history of polling. It is totally unprecedented for neither of the two major parties currently forming the government and the opposition to perform so poorly. Clearly the uncertainty of the Brexit is taking a major toll on the way voters are looking at politics.

It should be noted that the the pollster, YouGov, was one of just two that got the order right ahead of last week’s euro elections.

Whether these positions will be sustained or indeed seen by other firms we shall have to wait and see but there is little doubt that we are going through some very turbulent times.

The two parties at the top in this poll, of course, are the ones which have the clearest view on the big issue of the day Brexit. For the Lib Dems this is its best polling position since the peak of Cleggmania ahead of the 2010 general election.

This all makes next week’s parliamentary by-election in Peterborough even more interesting. This has been a seat that has flipped between Labour and the Conservatives and could it be that the same thing that is happening in the polls be seen there with good results for the Brexit party and the Lib Dems? Could neither LAB nor CON make the top 2?

Mike Smithson