The biggest barrier to a Tory Leaver succeeding Mrs May might well be other Tory Leavers

May 12th, 2019

If Steve Baker stands he could damage the chances of a Leaver winning or he might just win

My view is that if the Tory Leavers want to ensure of their own succeeds Mrs May then they should have a primary to ensure they have just one chosen candidate when first round of the leadership contest begins.

With several Leaver candidates likely to be on the ballot paper you can see a surprise elimination in the earlier rounds, something Boris Johnson and Dominic Raab fear might happen to them which has increased with today’s news that Steve Baker will stand in the Tory leadership election if the likes of Raab and Johnson back Mrs May’s deal.

Following this story my reaction is to bet on Steve Baker on succeeding Mrs May at the odds listed in the tweet atop this thread. I can see him doing an Iain Duncan Smith and being the last one standing from the Eurosceptic wing of the party and the membership voting for the most Eurosceptic candidate. In 2016 it only took 84 votes for Andrea Leadsom to make the final two, so the threshold can be quite low in these contests.

If Baker does stand at those odds then it has the potential to be a great trading bet, although back in May and June 2015 Jeremy Corbyn was similar odds to succeed Ed Miliband so there is precedent.

The quasi AV voting system the Conservative party uses to elect their leader can help Steve Baker to win but don’t rule out the possibility of the final two candidates presented to the membership being candidates who backed Remain in 2016 thanks to ego and ineptness of the ERG inclined.