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The picture of TMay that says it all on most of the front pages this morning

March 28th, 2019

Will she stay if Brexit doesn’t happen?

It is not often that the papers are all at one over what is the big news of the day. Interestingly as well they mostly use the same picture of Theresa May to illustrate their stories and this, my guess, will go down as a match to the shots of Maggie Thatcher in the car as she was leaving Downing Street for the last time in November 1990.

The problem with her withdrawal plan is that it is conditional on the first stage of Brexit going to plan and that is far from clear. We don’t know whether she will get a vote through on her deal and the signs are that this might not happen.

The question then becomes what happens to Mrs May? Is she going to struggle on or will she have to be forced out in some manner? Is the deadlock over Brexit going to be a semi-permanent fixture of a politics while a battered leader struggles on?

For those PBers who are punters there are also betting issues and I will be down a bit if a deal is not accepted by MPs the end of tomorrow. So be it.

What Theresa May’s announcement yesterday has set off, of course, is the next CON leadership election because it will no longer be a requirement of apparent loyalists to deny any interest in the job.

The interesting betting move last night was towards the Health Secretary, Matt Hancock, someone whom I tipped here in January when he was 65/1.  It’s been notable that Hancock has played a big part in explaining to the media and doing some  key interviews on behalf of the government. Hancock, of course, is a George Osborne protégé and I wonder whether the London Evening Standard will be a great big backer if it comes to a contest.

All to play for.

Mike Smithson