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24 hours after TMay’s exit plan announcement and Michael Gove the clear betting favourite to be next PM

March 28th, 2019

Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange

We are going to see a lot of this chart in the next few weeks – how punters on the Betfair exchange are seeing the Tory succession.

I choose Betfair because this is an exchange market where punters, not bookmakers, are setting the odds and you do get more movement.

At the moment it is the Environment Secretary Michael Gove who is making the running ahead of ex-Mayor, Johnson.

Interesting that the top choices in the betting are all male. Things are likely to change when a CON leadership election is actually called and it might be that someone who is not rated at the moment comes into the frame.

There are two relevant markets – the next Tory leader and the next PM.It might of course be that there’s a general election between now and when this contest takes place in which case Mr. Corbyn could conceivably succeed in the latter one.

Mike Smithson