Betting opinion moves sharply against TMay’s chances of getting her deal through

March 12th, 2019

A bid to extend the Article 50 timetable seems the most likely outcome

It’s been a very big and active betting morning with punters seeking to gamble on the government’s chances of getting the vote through tonight and the overall picture of where Brexit goes from here.

On the sporting Index spread betting market the Spreads move from 268 to 278 votes for the government 236 to 246 just before Geoffrey Cox started speaking.

There’s been little change on the Betfair No Deal brexit market with just 13% of betting support going for yes and 87% for no.

It’s widely expected that tonight’s likely rejection will be followed by another rejection tomorrow in the vote on whether there should be no deal. This then leaves the way for a move to seek to get more time through an article 50 extension..

The question is how that will be viewed in Brussels. My guess is that such a move would only be agreed if the government committed to either a referendum or a new General Election to try to get over the current political stalemate.

Mike Smithson