On the betting markets a March 29th UK Brexit down from a 71% chance to 16% in just five months

March 8th, 2019

Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange

What’s happened on the £3.3m main Brexit market

As we get closer to Brexit day the betting interest grows and on the Betfair exchange a total of £3.3m has already been wagered on this one Brexit market alone.

I cannot recall a non-election market which has attracted this level and, of course it will grow and grow as we get nearer 11pm three weeks on from today.

The extraordinary changes in the betting are good way of looking at the politics since the last Conservative conference.

From what looked like a near certainty back in October now looks very uncertain indeed as Mrs May tries yet again to get her deal through.

I’ve still got a sneaky feeling that the ERG rebels might at the very last minute lose their bottle and let it through. Being a Brexit purist is fine except that they maybe risking it not happening at all.

Who knows what the post Brexit period will bring – best take what they have now.

Mike Smithson