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The Ladbrokes 3/1 on a deal being agreed looks like a value bet

February 26th, 2019

I’ve just had a small wager at 3/1 with Ladbrokes that a deal that the Commons “meaningful vote” will secure the backing of MPs for the deal.This is what the Indy’s John Rentoul wrote after yesterday’s cabinet meeting:

“..the chances of Theresa May getting her Brexit deal through parliament are rising. I think it is now the most likely outcome, with the UK leaving the EU on 29 March or a few weeks later.

Partly, this is because it is finally sinking in that the chances of a no-deal Brexit are small. Today’s cabinet revolt reinforces the solid majority in the House of Commons against it happening. If the prime minister fails to win parliament’s approval of her deal, the alternative is likely to be that Brexit will be postponed, possibly for ever…”

It is that last Rentoul point that is the sting in the tail. Do strident Brexiteers of all parties want to risk the possibility of Brexit never happening which must be higher if the March 29th deadline is not met and there’s an extension? Some might say that the TMay deal is worse than remain but that is just rhetoric for the moment.

As the old saying goes – “Half a loaf is better than none”.

Mike Smithson