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Punters now make it a 77% chance that MPs won’t agree a deal by the end of March

February 26th, 2019

Lots of betting activity as we move closer to March – the month when the UK is due to leave the EU.

The big issue is whether MPs will agree a deal and the view of the betting markets, as seen in the Betdata.io chart, is that its a 77% chance that it won’t happen.

It is important here to check the exact terms of Betfair’s market before risking your cash.

“When will the House of Commons vote through a government motion to approve a EU withdrawal agreement as set out under Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union?

For the purpose of this market any vote by the House of Lords does not count.

If a first vote on the government motion was defeated the market will still remain active as any subsequent votes on a government motion to approve a EU withdrawal agreement will count. The market will only be settled if/when a motion is voted through by the House of Commons or March 29th 2019 CET comes to an end. For the purposes of this market March 29th 2019 will come to an end at midnight Central European Time.”

My reckoning is that TMay has a better chance of getting something through than the odds suggest.

Mike Smithson