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Month: February 2019

In this week’s PB / Polling Matters podcast: LAB’s Brexit shift, TIG voters vs the SDP & EU parliament elections

In this week’s PB / Polling Matters podcast: LAB’s Brexit shift, TIG voters vs the SDP & EU parliament elections

On this week’s podcast, Keiran Pedley and Matt Singh look at the numbers around Labour’s policy on a second Brexit vote and discuss the popularity of The Independent Group, comparing their potential impact to that of the SDP in the 1980s. Meanwhile, Matt unveils some exclusive polling on how Britain could vote in EU parliament elections should Article 50 be extended (& should Brits get to vote in them). Listen to the episode below Follow this week’s guests: Follow @KeiranPedley…

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Crisis, what crisis?

Crisis, what crisis?

The 1979 Callaghan Winter of discontent press conference – the basis of the Sun’s famous “Crisis What Crisis” headline A crisis broken down into key elements For lovers of scandals and crises, the last few years have provided rich pickings, a surfeit, even.  Scarcely an institution has been untouched: the NHS – from Morecambe Bay to the Francis Report  on Stafford to Gosport, the police, the charity sector – from Amnesty to Oxfam, newspapers, the BBC, MPs and their expenses, Parliament and…

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Sanders aged 77 and Biden 76 move to 2nd and 3rd favourite in the WH2020 Democratic nomination betting

Sanders aged 77 and Biden 76 move to 2nd and 3rd favourite in the WH2020 Democratic nomination betting

Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange Both old white male failures from previous White House campaigns There’s been a big shake up in the betting for the 2020 democratic nomination. Last week Bernie Sanders came into the race and established himself as second favourite. Now, the latest development is that Joe Biden, who first ran for the White House in 1984, is said to be on the point of putting his hat into the ring. Both, because they’ve…

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The hearing with Trump’s ex-lawyer, Michael Cohen, doesn’t bode well for the President

The hearing with Trump’s ex-lawyer, Michael Cohen, doesn’t bode well for the President

In the US the big political news has been the appearance before a Congressional committee of Michael Cohen, Trump’s former lawyer who is set to go to prison in May after being convicted last year. The Republicans on the committee have been seeking to discredit him but his comments could have a big impact on WH2020. A good flavour of the hearing is from this exchange between Rep. Paul Gosar (R-AZ) and Michael Cohen during today’s House Oversight Committee: GOSAR:…

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A Dilemma

A Dilemma

So, let’s imagine. It’s the Ides of March.  MPs have voted against Mrs May’s Deal (again). They’ve voted against No Deal. They’ve voted in favour of an extension. Through gritted teeth Mrs May announces to Parliament that she and her faithful sherpa, Olly Robbins, will be off to Brussels (again) to agree a short extension. By now, one imagines, they must have their own personal Eurostar carriage and enough Belgian chocolate, vacuum-packed mussels and frozen frites in their larder to…

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Those claiming that the “will of the people” equates to no deal should be treated like snake oil salesmen

Those claiming that the “will of the people” equates to no deal should be treated like snake oil salesmen

July 2016 ComRes polling that had 42% of Leave voters prioritising staying in the single market. Any politician trying to assert that what they propose, as we enter the final month of Article 50 process, is the “will of the people” should be treated like a snake oil salesman. It is now nearly three years since the referendum and things have moved on in all sorts of ways particularly in understanding what a possible deal would look like. So I’d…

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Punters now make it a 77% chance that MPs won’t agree a deal by the end of March

Punters now make it a 77% chance that MPs won’t agree a deal by the end of March

Lots of betting activity as we move closer to March – the month when the UK is due to leave the EU. The big issue is whether MPs will agree a deal and the view of the betting markets, as seen in the Betdata.io chart, is that its a 77% chance that it won’t happen. It is important here to check the exact terms of Betfair’s market before risking your cash. “When will the House of Commons vote through a…

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The Ladbrokes 3/1 on a deal being agreed looks like a value bet

The Ladbrokes 3/1 on a deal being agreed looks like a value bet

I’ve just had a small wager at 3/1 with Ladbrokes that a deal that the Commons “meaningful vote” will secure the backing of MPs for the deal.This is what the Indy’s John Rentoul wrote after yesterday’s cabinet meeting: “..the chances of Theresa May getting her Brexit deal through parliament are rising. I think it is now the most likely outcome, with the UK leaving the EU on 29 March or a few weeks later. Partly, this is because it is…

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