Which will happen first? TMay to step down as PM or the UK to leave the EU?

December 20th, 2018

I rather like this betting market which asks which of the two events will happen first – Theresa May ceasing to be Prime Minister or the UK actually leaving the EU.

With uncertainties over both events this is quite a good match.

My guess as we get closer to the March 29th article 50 deadline that this will see a fair bit of activity and no doubt the leave EU price will move to the favourite slot if the Theresa May deal does in fact pass and the reverse if it doesn’t.

Punters on this option would also be a winner if the deal didn’t get through the commons but we carried on till March 29th and there was no deal.

On Theresa May’s job prospects there’s little doubt that they have been enhanced in the last few days after last week’s VONC amongst CON MPs and more confident performances in the Commons both at PMQs yesterday and on Monday reporting pack on the latest round of discussions in Brussels.

  • Chart showing Betfair exchange prices from Betdata.io
  • Mike Smithson