New London poll finds Sadiq Khan heading for a first round victory in his re-election bid

December 11th, 2018


He is well positioned to win a 2020 contest

There’s a new YouGov/QMUL poll London Mayoral poll just out that has Sadiq Khan on 55% against just 27% for his Tory opponent Shaun Bailey. The voting system, it will be recalled is based on the supplementary vote so that a contender needs to win 50% only first round to be sure of victory.

If indeed at the 2020 election Khan ends up according to the poll then he will secure a second term without the need of the supplementary vote.

At the last election in 2016 all the pollsters did extremely well with all being within a point in their final surveys.

In recent times London has been strongly a Labour City so this survey does not come as a surprise except, of course, that between 2008 and 2016 the Mayoralty was held by the Conservative Boris Johnson.

Khan is also showing an improvement in his YouGov well/badly rating. In September he was on a net plus 4 and is now a net +11. Then, a major issue was knife crime in the capital for which he was coming under fire.

Khan is a very strong odds on favourite with the bookies and it is hard to see him failing to win.

Mike Smithson