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Month: November 2018

Punters rate TMay’s chances of getting the Brexit deal agreed by MPs this years at 14%

Punters rate TMay’s chances of getting the Brexit deal agreed by MPs this years at 14%

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This represents something of a recovery! Unlike one or two of her predecessors I am not aware that Theresa May follows political betting and the way the odds are changing. If she had have done she would have noticed about 6pm this evening the chances of her getting the brexit vote agreed before the end of the year was down to 3.3%. Since then has been something of a recovery and now on Betfair it’s trading about 14%. But we…

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Once again the money’s going on TMay not making it to the end of the year

Once again the money’s going on TMay not making it to the end of the year

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Her best bet now pic.twitter.com/s0QZJFCJaP — Kevin Maguire (@Kevin_Maguire) November 27, 2018 Now a 28% chance on Betfair The incredible uncertainty about politics at the moment continues and now there is more speculation that Theresa May might be out this year. She could decide to go of her own accord or end up getting voted down by MPs. That of course means 48 letters on real paper to Graham Brady demanding a confidence vote. There’ve been developments on that during…

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Beto O’Rourke, third favourite for WH2020, gets closer to putting his hat into the ring

Beto O’Rourke, third favourite for WH2020, gets closer to putting his hat into the ring

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Is he the white Obama? The biggest UK political betting market continues to be the US presidential election in 2020 and overnight there have been big developments with Beto O’Rourke saying that he isn’t rulling out a bid. He had said on repeated occasions that he would not seek the Presidency at the next election but in a town hall meeting last night in his home city of El Paso he suggested that he is now open to a presidential…

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On the eve of the critical Mississippi senate election Trump’s approval ratings plummet

On the eve of the critical Mississippi senate election Trump’s approval ratings plummet

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Meanwhile the Mueller investigation gets closer Tomorrow sees the final chapter in this year’s midterms with the runoff for the Senatorial place in Mississippi. Today the president is attending two mass rallies in different parts of the state in the hope of shoring up his core vote ahead of the election. This is one that Republicans should really hold. It is in a solid “red state” and the expectation is that the party will be able to see off a…

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The bookies open the Commons deal betting making rejection the odds on-favourite

The bookies open the Commons deal betting making rejection the odds on-favourite

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But read the terms of the market After yesterday’s historic agreement attention now turns to whether the House of Commons is going to accept what Mrs May has agreed with the EU. Several bookies have markets up at all of them with opening odds that the deal will be rejected. Betway has it at 1/3 that this will be the outcome and also that Theresa May is just 10/11 to be replaced during 2019. Betfair has launched what I think…

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Monkey’s paw. Delivering on the referendum campaign promises

Monkey’s paw. Delivering on the referendum campaign promises

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Voters overwhelmingly now remember only two arguments being made in favour of Brexit before the referendum: curb immigration & more money for the NHS. pic.twitter.com/6bmcd3Tvwk — Andrew Cooper (@AndrewCooper__) February 9, 2018 In the end, Theresa May has been more faithful to the referendum mandate than most Leave advocates. In 2016, the Leave campaign focussed on just two things: diverting the EU contributions into the NHS and scaring the public into believing that millions of Turks were poised to invade. It succeeded….

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The Telegraph leading on May’s TV Corbyn debate plan

The Telegraph leading on May’s TV Corbyn debate plan

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At least she’s taking the initiative This reminds me very much Tony Blair in the period leading up to the Iraq War. That, it will be recalled, saw massive demonstrations and Commons revolts but in the end the UK joined the US in going to war. The hardline Brexiteers would have been in a stronger position now if they’d put the grunt work in and had had an alternative plan. Anyway another week begins. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

After an historic morning in Brussels the betting remains that Brexit will happen on time & TMay will survive until at least 2019

After an historic morning in Brussels the betting remains that Brexit will happen on time & TMay will survive until at least 2019

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The uncertainties remain I’m taking profits on my TMay surviving 2018 bet because I think there’s just an outside chance that she could quit if the Commons votes against her plan. That would happen before Christmas. One thing that’s happened during her premiership is that ultimately she’s won just about all the main votes on Brexit. Things might look bleak now but is Labour really going to risk being tarred with having made a no deal exit to actually happen?…

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