2019 becomes favourite for year of next general election as punters ponder the EU deal

November 14th, 2018

After all the waiting this is a massive day for Theresa May and for the country’s relationship with Europe.

What I find amazing is the number of MPs and other commentators, declaring that this is a bad deal and they haven’t even seen the document yet. Sobeit.

At the end of the day the big question will be how many MPs will be ready to put their heads above the parapet and vote for no deal with all that that might mean. This is TMay’s big gamble making the uncertainty of leaving without a deal the reason to vote eventually for what is agreed.

The big choice for remainers is rejecting the deal and hoping that this might lead to a third referendum or accepting BINO.

The money’s going on a general election next year and on Betfair gamblers make it an 18% chance that TMay will be out this year.

Have a good day.

Mike Smithson