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Month: October 2018

In October 2017 LAB had an average poll lead of 2.4% – this October Corbyn’s party is 3% behind

In October 2017 LAB had an average poll lead of 2.4% – this October Corbyn’s party is 3% behind

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The polls turned in March which coincided with Corbyn’s response to Salisbury and antisemitism becoming a big issue October 2018 voting intention polls October 2017  voting intention polls Survation’s chart shows the timing of the switch   The Survation chart shows the LAB-CON splits in its Westminster voting intention polling since GE2017 when, of course, the firm was the most accurate pollster. Since then it has generally been recording the best figures for Labour and at times, like at the…

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The November 6th US Midterms – where we are and what might happen

The November 6th US Midterms – where we are and what might happen

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Viewcode looks at the detailed data The main elections on November 6th  are for 435 seats in the House of Representatives, 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate, 36 out of 50 state/district Governors, and 3 out of 5 territory Governors. This is an attempt to summarise the predictors. The following figures were taken between 11pm BST October 27th and 3:30am BST (2:30am GMT) October 28th 2018. Nationwide generic ballot polls The United States is a large country with…

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The persistence of lack of memory. How the state retirement age was changed and communicated

The persistence of lack of memory. How the state retirement age was changed and communicated

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Old sins have long shadows. The equalisation of state pension age was first mooted in the early 1990s and was enacted in 1995. Yet it remains controversial now. The action group WASPI campaigned in the last general election and that campaign arguably made the difference in some marginals.  Theresa May might conceivably have got an overall majority if it had not been for their efforts and the whole course of Britain’s departure from the EU, among other things, might have been radically different….

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My Cruz-O’Rourke spread bet – “selling the Republican” at 53%

My Cruz-O’Rourke spread bet – “selling the Republican” at 53%

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PB regulars will know that I am a keen spread better on political events where the more you are right the more you win and the more you are wrong the more you lose. Essentially you “buy” and “sell” a position as though it was a stock or share and watch how the market moves. At GE2017 on the Saturday after the Tory manifesto launch I “sold” CON seats at 393. They ended up with 318 MPs and my profit…

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Beto O’Rourke: not the new Lincoln but perhaps following in his footsteps

Beto O’Rourke: not the new Lincoln but perhaps following in his footsteps

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Could losing an election be the best thing to happen to the 25/1 shot? These are not normal times. In normal times, US presidential candidates are vice presidents, senators and governors: people who already have a record in high office. There have always been exceptions but even then, they usually conformed to the rule in a wider sense. Trump does not conform to the rule. Indeed, Trump fails to conform to many received rules of politics. The easy conclusion would…

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This questionnaire on the “Values and Identity” clans of GB is well worth doing

This questionnaire on the “Values and Identity” clans of GB is well worth doing

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There's an online questionnaire here to find out which "value clan" you belong to https://t.co/WEX6o88OAA pic.twitter.com/aIIz2vJe8D — John Rentoul (@JohnRentoul) October 26, 2018 If you haven’t done so already check this out for yourself here. Essentially this is a different approach to identifying voters which has been put together by the pollster BMG and academics at Bristol and Manchester. Both David Herdson and I came out as Orange bookers. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

US midterms early voting is reaching presidential election levels in some states

US midterms early voting is reaching presidential election levels in some states

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But who’s benefiting? All the signs are that turnout is going to reach almost presidential election levels in the US midterm elections that take place on Tuesday November 6th. In many states it is possible to vote early and quite a number started the process on Tuesday with two weeks to go. Almost across the board the numbers who are availing themselves of this facility are at levels nearing, or in some cases topping. the recorded numbers casting their ballots…

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Angela’s Ashes. Germany throws its two party system on the bonfire

Angela’s Ashes. Germany throws its two party system on the bonfire

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The  German state of Hessen goes to the polls this  weekend.  Hessen has been something of a swing state between the CDU and SPD. The current state assembly has the CDU in power on 38% of the vote in a coalition with the Greens  who  won 11%. The SPD leads  the opposition with 31%. But all is not well. The large national parties are worried  by the shifting ground in German  politics. A look at recent polling shows why Both the CDU and SPD…

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