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Whatever the numbers today’s march will reinforce both CON and LAB anti-Brexit MPs

October 20th, 2018

This’ll ratchet up the pressure for a “People’s vote”

Inevitably there are massively different estimates of how many people have been marching in London today against Brexit but judging by the TV pictures it does seem to be very large. Whether it’s up to the anti Iraq war demonstrations of 2003 I don’t know but it’s still pretty substantial.

The organisers are lucky that it is commanding a lot of attention by the media and the pro-Brexiteers who have been interviewed for “balance” are simply showing the huge gulf in British society that exists and will continue for years whatever happens on March 29th.

Unlike the Iraq War fifteen years ago, when Tony Blair could rely for votes on both most LAB MPs and a large number of CON ones, Mrs. May’s position is far more precarious and there are some huge parliamentary hurdles in the days and weeks ahead.

    In a sense this also reinforces Mrs. May’s position which is to honour the result of the referendum but do it in a way that causes as little damage to the economy as possible. The description, BINO, Brexit in Name Only, is effectively what might end up with.

Tory Brexiteers are split between the hardliners and those like Michael Gove who see just getting out of the EU on whatever terms as being the right strategy. From that point on the shape of what it mean can be formed.

Anti-Brexiteers are split between those who want to go for another vote and those ready to accept BINO.

The LAB leadership just wants to use the situation for a general election and notably the man who goes on many demos, Corbyn, isn’t there today.

So the next six months could see BINO, a postponement of Article 50, a decision on a new referendum or Britain leaving without a deal. It could also see a new general election and a new CON leader.

Mike Smithson