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Month: October 2018

NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast. Looking at the US Midterms with ex-White House Coms director Anthony Scaramucci

NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast. Looking at the US Midterms with ex-White House Coms director Anthony Scaramucci

This week PB / Polling Matters will unveil a series of special podcasts focusing on the US midterms. These podcasts will vary in content. Some will talk numbers with the pollsters and some will talk the issues behind the numbers with journalists and other political actors. The first in our series sees Keiran Pedley speak to Anthony Scaramucci. You can listen to the show below: Scaramucci is a leading Trump supporter, serving Trump in a variety of roles including an…

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The pound rises on the FOREX markets after the BrexSec reports that a deal maybe only three weeks away

The pound rises on the FOREX markets after the BrexSec reports that a deal maybe only three weeks away

Brexit secretary confirms deal expected by mid-November https://t.co/Xo4xGOB5SG — SkyNews (@SkyNews) October 31, 2018 Raab names November 21st as the date There’ve been developments in the government’s negotiations with the EU on Brexit, with Dominic Raab, saying in a letter to MPs on the Brexit committee that he will be willing to give evidence once a deal was finalised and that they currently expected November 21st to be suitable. It appears that the government is looking to finalise a deal…

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Sales tacks. What to do with the high street holes caused by shop closures

Sales tacks. What to do with the high street holes caused by shop closures

Debenhams, House of Fraser, Homebase and more – this is the grim story of the UK high street so far this yearhttps://t.co/UhZU4a9v0E — Manchester News MEN (@MENnewsdesk) October 25, 2018 This has been a torrid time for many retailers. Every week brings news of another familiar high street shop on the skids. House of Fraser, Toys R Us, Maplins, Poundworld and Gaucho have all gone bust. Many household name chains are closing stores at a rate of knots. Rumours abound of big names struggling. …

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After 30 years the curtains close on regular Guardian/ICM polls

After 30 years the curtains close on regular Guardian/ICM polls

The longest lasting poll series in British politics comes to an end. This is something of a sad moment in British politics. The longest lasting polling series, ICM for the Guardian, has come to an end after a total of 30 years. Polls have been running from the firm in the paper at least monthly since January 1989 when ICM replaced Marplan as the paper’s voting intention provider. The first one, as seen in the chart above, was in January…

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It is now a 33% chance on the betting markets that there’ll be a general election next year

It is now a 33% chance on the betting markets that there’ll be a general election next year

Chart Betdata.io ATTENTION “Brenda from Bristol”! I can’t remember a time when there has been so much uncertainty about the short and medium-term of British politics. With the Article 50 date for Brexit less than 6 months away and still no deal with the EU it is extremely difficult to project what’s going to happen in the coming months. Labour is pressing for a general election and will use its MP numbers and what other power it has in the…

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Hammond’s budget: the tabloids react

Hammond’s budget: the tabloids react

The budget – at least its been a break from Brexit My guess is that the Tories will not be too unhappy about the coverage of the budget. Mostly the papers are positive or neutral and he has managed to avoid horrors of the past like George Osborne’s pasty tax. So initially job well done and some prominence for the Chancellor who is nothing like a high profile as his predecessor George Osborne, who was sacked by Theresa May just…

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Seven days before the Midterms Trump sees a sharp drop in his approval ratings

Seven days before the Midterms Trump sees a sharp drop in his approval ratings

With just a week to go before Trump’s first major electoral test since becoming President the latest Gallup approval rating sees a biggish drop. The chart shows that polling over the past week his net ratings edging down 4% to minus 14. This reverses a recent trend of his ratings getting better. In previous midterm the President approval ratings have been a broad indicator. Although Trump will not appear on any ballot next week his big message as he has…

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The budget spread bets – how many times will key words be mentioned?

The budget spread bets – how many times will key words be mentioned?

At 3.30pm the Chancellor, Phillip Hammond will rise to set out his latest budget. I must say that I am still not used to this taking place in November and on a Monday. Throughout my adult life budgets have happened in March or early April and never on a Monday. We are where we are. I like the different approach to budget bets taken in the above Sporting Index set of markets. How many time will certain things happen or…

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