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Month: September 2018

More evidence that Corbyn is not now getting anything like the personal backing from GE2017 LAB voters than he was

More evidence that Corbyn is not now getting anything like the personal backing from GE2017 LAB voters than he was

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An average of 51% of 2017 Labour voters now pick Corbyn as the best choice for PM, compared to May and 'Not Sure', down from an average of 77% across the summer of 2017. In comparison, Con / May vote holding up surprisingly well, averaging 75%, down from 87% last summer. pic.twitter.com/507Rw7UHql — Statto (@james_bowley) September 24, 2018 PB regulars will know that I am a great fan of leader ratings and believe that they are a better pointer to…

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If the current CON leadership rules had been in place in November 1990 Maggie would probably have survived

If the current CON leadership rules had been in place in November 1990 Maggie would probably have survived

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November 1990 – Mrs. T leaves Number 10 A CON leader’s position is now much more secure than it was in 1990 One of the things that’s driving me crazy at the moment is the sheer level of of ignorance from parts of the media and even some MPs about how CON leaders can be ousted and the consequencial process for choosing a successor. So many are familiar with the downfall of Maggie in November 1990 that they are convinced…

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With or without EU, will anybody follow Le Royaume-Uni’s lead?

With or without EU, will anybody follow Le Royaume-Uni’s lead?

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This market on which countries will leave the EU by the end of 2025 from Paddy Power on first inspection seems like an excellent way to contribute to the Paddy Power bonus fund. In terms of disasters for the United Kingdom a no deal Brexit is to picture the Hindenburg meets Chernobyl meets the fall of Singapore meets Solo: A Star Wars Story. I’m not sure any country will be in a hurry to repeat Brexit, particularly those countries in…

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Six Impossible Things Before Brexit

Six Impossible Things Before Brexit

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With six months to go, the ultimate denouement of Brexit looks as murky as ever.  That hasn’t stopped plenty of people trying to peer through the vapours.  If you are going to speculate, go right ahead, but it’s probably best not base your speculations on things that are downright wrong.  So let’s take a stroll past some of the more common misconceptions. 1) If Britain proposes something different (whether a recantation or a hardening of stance), the EU won’t necessarily…

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New ComRes poll finds LAB catching up with the Tories as the one best described as “The Nasty Party”

New ComRes poll finds LAB catching up with the Tories as the one best described as “The Nasty Party”

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A new ComRes poll commissioned by Jewish News has found the CON lead over the label ‘the nasty party’, memorably coined by TMay at the Party’s 2002 Conference, is now being challenged by Corbyn’s LAB. The poll found that while 34% said they thought the Conservatives are ‘the nasty party’, almost as many – 31% – said the same of LAB. The poll also found that fully twice as many British voters – 48% – think Labour was a more…

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The biggest US midterms battle: Beto O’Rourke’s Texas effort to unseat Ted Cruz

The biggest US midterms battle: Beto O’Rourke’s Texas effort to unseat Ted Cruz

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The Senate race that could deprive the Republicans of their majority Of all the elections that are taking place across the US in November the one that’s attracting the most attention is the effort by Beto O’Rourke to take the Texas Senate seat held by Ted Cruz. Overnight there was the first TC debate as featured in the video clip above. What looked like a certain hold by the Republican is now being rated as a toss-up following an energetic…

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TMay ends the week extending her satisfaction margin over Corbyn

TMay ends the week extending her satisfaction margin over Corbyn

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The latest numbers in what is by far the longest series of leader ratings in British politics, the satisfied/dissatisfied figures from Ipsos-MORI, are out and show TMay just about holding steady but with a sizeable drop for Corbyn. Fieldwork took place before yesterday’s EU summit in Salzburg. As can be seen both are in negative territory but Corbyn’s on net minus 42% while TMay is at minus 33%. To put that into context – in July 2017 Corbyn was on…

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