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On Betfair punters make it a 20% chance that Corbyn won’t last the year

August 14th, 2018

Corbyn’s constant changes of his story have made matters worse

One betting market which we’ve never reported on has been the Betfair’s year of Corbyn’s departure. This isn’t so surprising for following his reelection by a whopping margin 2 years ago the Labour leader has looked totally secure. This of course has been helped by the overwhelming support he appears to have from the membership and there has been virtually nothing his detractors can do to shift him.

That might be changing because of the manner that he and his team have dealt with the Daily Mail revelations about what he did in the Tunis Cemetery 4 years ago.

The current explosion in news coverage on this should have come as no surprise to Corbyn and his team. This has been known about ever since he wrote in the Morning Star about his visit in 2014 when he was not Labour leader and probably never even had any thought that stage that such a position would be possible.

During the GE2017 campaign the Tory attack dog and then cabinet minister, Michael Fallon, sought to highlight what top Corbyn and done during his Tunis visit but the story did not seem to have legs. That, however, you should have been a warning to Labour’s press team and Corbyn himself that it could blow up again. For that Morning Star column made clear that he was doing more in the cemetery than just honouring those who had been killed in the Israeli air raid.

So why oh why was the first reaction from the party that the visit had been confined to the air raid victims?

What’s giving this legs this time has been the photographs from 2014 which have been available on the internet all this time. It becomes very difficult stating that you don’t think you laid a wreath when there is a picture of you doing it. So the story changed to the now ridiculed quote on the Metro front page above.

My guess is that he’ll still be there at the end of the year but the chances of him not making it have risen. I’m on at 7.4 on Betfair. This is currently 5.

Mike Smithson