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Month: April 2018

Fewer than 3 in 5 of GE2017 LAB voters prefer Corbyn as “next PM”. Maybe the magic of last June is evaporating

Fewer than 3 in 5 of GE2017 LAB voters prefer Corbyn as “next PM”. Maybe the magic of last June is evaporating

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YouGov VI: CON: 43% (+3) LAB: 38% (-2) LD: 8% (-1) There is a new YouGov poll for the Times which has the Tories moving to a 5% lead compared with the level pegging that they had a week ago. The fieldwork took place at the start of the week and before the Windrush issue really caught hold as a big media story. A finding that should concern LAB is that of those who voted for the party on June…

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The Palace is laying the groundwork for a Regency

The Palace is laying the groundwork for a Regency

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The Queen won’t abdicate but she might still retire The beauty of the Commonwealth lies in its pointlessness. Far from being a hindrance, the fact that it doesn’t have a purpose is a feature, not a bug. No-one is being swept along by ‘the Project’ and rarely does anyone expect anything from the two-yearly get-togethers – and that lack of clear agenda, combined with an informal atmosphere with leaders parted from advisors and officials, is what can create the space…

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The Tories hold on against an SNP challenge in Scotland but lose 2 seats to the LDs in England

The Tories hold on against an SNP challenge in Scotland but lose 2 seats to the LDs in England

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Highland on Perth and Kinross (Con defence) Result: Con 1,907 (47% +2% on last time), Lab 239 (6% no candidate last time), Lib Dem 78 (2% -1% on last time), Green 104 (3% -1% on last time), Ind (Taylor) 280 (7%), Ind (Baykal) 12 (0%), SNP 1,466 (36% +1% on last time) Conservative lead over SNP of 441 (9%) on a swing of 0.5% from SNP to Con Total Independent vote: 292 (7% -4% on last time) No candidate elected…

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LAB might now be back level pegging in voting polls but Corbyn’s leader ratings should be a cause for concern

LAB might now be back level pegging in voting polls but Corbyn’s leader ratings should be a cause for concern

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His handling of the antisemitism issue might be driving this The above the data comes from Opinium the only pollster which does at least a monthly survey of leader approval ratings which means that we have sufficient data points to identify trend. The last numbers were from fieldwork last week before Tuesdays antisemitism debate in the Commons which got a lot of very negative coverage ad helped to deflect a little from Mrs. May’s Windrush problem. What is striking is…

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If the Windrush affair has an impact in the polls expect it to be seen most in the leader ratings not voting intention

If the Windrush affair has an impact in the polls expect it to be seen most in the leader ratings not voting intention

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Could it reverse TMay’s steady recovery since GE2017? Above is a chart based on Opinium’s net approval ratings for the PM since GE2017. I choose this pollster because it is one of just two that just about always every month publish the latest leader ratings which gives us enough data points for analysis. I wish other firms would follow this lead. As can be seen TMay made something of a recovery in the immediate post-election period until October when the…

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Why betting on the 2020 Republican nomination is better value than the Trump survival market

Why betting on the 2020 Republican nomination is better value than the Trump survival market

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Betdata.io Time for a bet on him not getting the GOP 2020 nomination? While the focus on in the UK has been on the Syrian crisis, Mrs May and the Windrush generation and the ongoing divide within LAB over anti-semitism the news from the United States has been less promising for the survival of the President. The ramifications of the former FBI director, James Comey, going on TV last night together with speculation over what will come out of last…

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Latest PB/Polling Matters podcast: Are you racist? Syrian airstrikes & the Lords report on polling

Latest PB/Polling Matters podcast: Are you racist? Syrian airstrikes & the Lords report on polling

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On this week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast Keiran Pedley is joined by Matt Singh (Number Cruncher) and Adam Drummond (Opinium) to discuss: 1) Why voting intention polls and perceptions of party leaders seem to be moving in different directions 2) Reactions to the Windrush scandal and how pollsters deal with sensitive questions around immigration 3) An exclusive survey from Opinium for PB that shows 1 in 10 Brits believe the Russian military accusation that Britain staged the Douma chemical attack in…

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Jeremy Hunt – 4th favourite to succeed TMay – being investigated by Parliamentary Standards Commissioner

Jeremy Hunt – 4th favourite to succeed TMay – being investigated by Parliamentary Standards Commissioner

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The Health Secretary, Jeremy Hunt, is being investigated by the Parliamentary Standards Commissioner for allegedly breaching the MPs' code of conduct over declaration of his biz interests – No 10 say no breach, awkward for a Cabinet minister — Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) April 18, 2018 All we have at the moment is the Laura Kuenssberg tweet above but this does sound possibly serious for the Health Secretary. The main betting markets that could be affected are the next CON leader…

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