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Month: April 2018

Polling analysis: Corbyn is a liability to Labour while TMay has returned to being an asset to the Tories

Polling analysis: Corbyn is a liability to Labour while TMay has returned to being an asset to the Tories

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The YouGov favourability trackers are just about the only polling where we can compare leaders with their parties on the same basis. The same question is asked in exactly the same form to the same sample whether people have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of CON/LAB/TMay/Corbyn. It is also a tracker which is asked in the same form at regular intervals which means there are enough data points to examine trends. The movement in the leader and party ratings since…

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LAB and the LDs must be hoping to move up the BBC National vote share projection next week – with the Tories edging down

LAB and the LDs must be hoping to move up the BBC National vote share projection next week – with the Tories edging down

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Drawing national conclusions from the local battles We are only 8 days away from the May local elections which at the moment looks as though will be the most significant UK electoral test that we will have during 2018. One of the problems with looking for national trends from the locals is that very different ranges of seats come up each year and we cannot simply use the party vote or seat totals for comparison. Over a four year cycle…

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Fake news and how to deal with it

Fake news and how to deal with it

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Russian propaganda—whether on chemical weapons in Syria, the nerve-agent attack in the UK, or the downing of the Malaysian Air flight over Ukraine—rarely attempts to explain the evidence but only to obfuscate it. But that’s what the guilty do. https://t.co/F3zwckGjVa — Kenneth Roth (@KenRoth) April 23, 2018 Revealed: John Bolton Chaired anti-Muslim Think Tank That Spread Fake News With Help of Russian Trollshttps://t.co/jiHNLNm3mW — Haaretz.com (@haaretzcom) April 23, 2018 DNA is perplexingly long. Almost 98% of the human genome is…

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The LDs need a good day in next week’s locals just to show that they are still in the game

The LDs need a good day in next week’s locals just to show that they are still in the game

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Can they take councils and increase their council seats? We are now three years on from the end of the Coalition and it is 8 years since tuition fees were a big issue. For the Lib Dems next week’s local elections are an opportunity to show that they are starting to recover at least at local level. Because the elections up on May the 3rd include all the London boroughs there will be much greater mainstream media interest than is…

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Punters still make next year the favourite for TMay to stand down

Punters still make next year the favourite for TMay to stand down

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Betdata.io In spite of all the talk about “leadership challenges” there’s been little change in the Betfair betting on when TMay will cease to be leader. Next year remains the solid 37% favourite with 2018 a 25% shot. A few weeks go I got 8/1 with a bookie that she’d be out this year which I regarded then as value. The latest prices don’t tempt me. But there is little doubt that she has done remarkably well to survive for…

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Why the threat of a confidence vote on TMay has far less potency than it appears

Why the threat of a confidence vote on TMay has far less potency than it appears

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Talk of letters to Graham Brady is probably just talk It has been reported over the weekend that Mrs May could possibly face a challenge over the issue of whether Britain remains in a Customs Union after Brexit. Hardline Brexiteers are absolutely resolute that this should not happen and have been making vibes that should Mrs May concede what seems to be the position of Brussels then she could face a confidence vote. There are warnings about that in order…

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Early voting from the Arizona 8th special election suggests this won’t be another Alabama or Pennsylvania

Early voting from the Arizona 8th special election suggests this won’t be another Alabama or Pennsylvania

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Maybe not a third Democratic special election victory on the trot? After the sensational Democratic party wins in the recent Alabama and Pennsylvania special elections there’s a lot of focus on Arizona 8th Congressional District where voting takes place next Tuesday. The earlier two elections saw victories for the Democratic Party which were particularly striking because because they were in places Trump had done so well at WH2016. There’s been a bit of excitement on this latest “special” election because…

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Exactly a year ago this weekend ComRes had TMay’s Tories 25% ahead

Exactly a year ago this weekend ComRes had TMay’s Tories 25% ahead

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How things have changed since It is just a year since Theresa May made her fateful and what will be her career defining announcement about calling a general election to secure a bigger majority. On the weekend after the news we had the initial round of voting intention polls of the campaign and those are shown in the chart above. As can be seen the one that stands out is ComRes, which had been the most accurate pollster two years…

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