If you fancy a 2% return in a little over 8 months this is the bet for you

April 29th, 2018

William Hill have a market on whether there will be a second EU in/out referendum before the 1st of January 2019, I’m backing the No side.

Logistically I just cannot see a referendum happening this year. It would require legislation to be passed by both parts of Parliament, given the number of Leavers in both places, and Mrs May’s lack of majority in both Houses such a bill is likely to get bogged down in Parliamentary trench warfare.

I suspect if Mrs May tried to introduce a bill to introduce a second referendum it would likely trigger the end of her premiership and the fall of the government which could lead to an early election which would delay any such bill to legislate for a second referendum.

With the prospects of a very watered down Brexit being delivered by Mrs May┬ásuch as remaining in a customs union and free movement being retained in all but name I’m not sure there’s much appetite for another referendum from the Remain side.


Update – PBer Sandpit has alerted me to the Betfair market that pays 8% for the same bet.