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After all the wait the YouGov London local poll has just margin of error changes

April 26th, 2018

So we are almost back where we were UPDATED

The big story from the poll is that there has been a disproportionate drop in the LAB vote in inner London.

Labour 59 (down 8 from Feb)
Cons 22 (up 5)

This puts into question whether the red team can take Wandsworth which is a key target and one which has remained in Tory hands for 40 years. It also, if the poll is right means that Westminster will remain Tory.

The main hope for LAB remains Barnet.

UPDATE – Comment from Prof Phil Cowley of QMUL

“The latest poll predicts that the Conservatives will hold both Westminster and Wandsworth, where previous polling had Labour on course to take both. In Barnet Labour is set to become the biggest party, something that has not happened since the council was created in 1964.

Professor Cowley added: “The small decline in support for Labour should mean that both Westminster and Wandsworth will be held by the Conservatives. We should however, be careful about applying a London-wide survey to individual boroughs with any certainty. Should the Conservatives manage to hold these seats, it will not be a sign of success, merely the avoidance of utter disaster”.

On the basis of this the value bet, I’d suggest, is No Overall Control in Barnet. I’ve just bet with Ladbrokes at 9/1

Mike Smithson