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Month: February 2018

PaddyPower makes it 3/1 that TMay won’t survive beyond the end of March

PaddyPower makes it 3/1 that TMay won’t survive beyond the end of March

And it’s 2/1 that there’ll be a general election this year A spokesman for the bookie said: “Theresa May’s time as PM has been a constant case of one step forward followed by several steps backwards – and that’s just her political viewpoints. The pressure is ramping up on May, and the odds are shortening that she’ll be ousted, prompting another General Election and – likely – another Brexit Referendum.” UK POLITICS ODDS: 2/1 General Election to be called in…

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Chris Rennard’s “Winning Here” – the requiem for the battered Lib Dems or the handbook for another revival?

Chris Rennard’s “Winning Here” – the requiem for the battered Lib Dems or the handbook for another revival?

A review of Chris Rennard’s newly published “Winning Here” “ Paddy’s personal ratings were shown to be very high in our poll, even at the outset of the by- election campaign. This helped to persuade him of the validity of the other poll findings.” Thus Chris Renard then the LD director of campaigns and elections coaxed Paddy Ashdown into accepting his formula for winning the 1993 Newbury by-election. The humour and shrewdness about people’s motivation mark this first volume of…

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Suddenly the money’s going on 2018 being the year of the next General Election

Suddenly the money’s going on 2018 being the year of the next General Election

Exactly three weeks ago 2018 was rated as just a 3.8% on Betfair’s “Year of Next General Election” market. Tonight it has reached 18.3% and is now the third favourite. Clearly there is an enormous amount of political turbulence and TMay might find herself in trouble should the problems with Brexit continue but I’ve not shifted my view that the election will take place as planned in 2022. Rees-Mogg remains betting favourite for next PM. Thanks to Betdata.io for the…

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If the 7 Sinn Fein MPs take their seats TMay’s future & possibly Brexit would be down to the Tory EU rebels

If the 7 Sinn Fein MPs take their seats TMay’s future & possibly Brexit would be down to the Tory EU rebels

Lots of talk about today of the possibility that the Irish nationalist party, Sinn Fein, taking up its MP seats at Westminster. A call has been made by the prime minister of the Irish Republic, Leo Varadkar, who is saying that the Sinn Fein MPs should take up their seats at Westminster in order to make things better for Ireland. On the face of it this seems simple but I’m am less sure. For a century Sinn Fein MPs who’ve…

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The Tory headache that no one talks about – the 3.2m GE2017 CON voters who backed Remain at the referendum

The Tory headache that no one talks about – the 3.2m GE2017 CON voters who backed Remain at the referendum

These exceed the 2.6m GE2017 LAB leave voters by some margin We get lots of talk about Labour having to be mindful that a significant part of its voters at the last election also voted Leave in the referendum. But we don’t seem to hear much about what in terms of a percentage of the overall number of voters at the last election, the total of Conservative Remain voters exceeded them. The above chart which has been highlighted by Election…

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The CBI give a thumbs up to Corbyn and Brussels said to be looking “kindly” at speech

The CBI give a thumbs up to Corbyn and Brussels said to be looking “kindly” at speech

CBI CBI give their backing to Corbyn's Brexit approachhttps://t.co/JYNzymgFAt via @CBItweets — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 26, 2018 Bloomberg reporting that Brussels might look kindly on the LAB planhttps://t.co/6cWZnLi6Yv — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 26, 2018 Over to you Mrs. May

Corbyn speech has made TMay’s Brexit challenge even harder

Corbyn speech has made TMay’s Brexit challenge even harder

The numbers get tighter The big black cloud that hangs over Mrs May and her team is the possibility that LAB MPs will be whipped to support an amendment backed by one of her Tory Rebels on Brexit. Since the failure to hold on to the Conservative majority on June 8th her path forward has always been precarious but what has not happened in a major way so far is for an issue to emerge that allows a united Labour…

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