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Month: December 2017

In terms of leadership chances Jeremy Hunt emerges as the winner from the DGreen exit

In terms of leadership chances Jeremy Hunt emerges as the winner from the DGreen exit

Why I’ve had a punt on the HealthSec to succeed TMay Yesterday I had a bet for the first time on the Health Secretary, Jeremy Hunt, as next Conservative leader. I got 23/1 on Betfair. I know other PBers have been betting and tipping him at longer odds and well done to them. What convinced me that Hunt might be in the running was that it was he who was sent out to do the Today programme interview only hours…

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Can we agree that “Peak Theresa” was the ComRes 25% lead in the S Mirror on April 23rd 2017?

Can we agree that “Peak Theresa” was the ComRes 25% lead in the S Mirror on April 23rd 2017?

S Mirror ComRes poll field work April 19-20 CON 50 LAB 25 UKIP 7 LD 11 Over the past day or so may have been lots of eulogies, that’s the best way to describe it, to the extraordinary resilience and staying ower of Theresa May who seems to cope with one crisis after another and still remain at Number 10. Almost all of the articles seek to highlight the poll lead that she had after calling the general election in…

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London Local Elections 2018 : By-Elections Review and Forecast

London Local Elections 2018 : By-Elections Review and Forecast

Harry Hayfield looks at the capital’s by-election and has a forecast Since the local elections in 2014 in London, there have been a total of 75 by-elections to the 32 councils in the capital and overall those by-elections have shown that the mainstream parties are clawing back support from the smaller parties. And yet, despite this there has been very little actual change with only six seats changing hands, those seats being: Stepney Green on Tower Hamlets (Lab GAIN from…

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What now for Damian Green?

What now for Damian Green?

A sacked, anti-authoritarian Remainer with all the dirt on No10 on the backbenches. What could possibly go wrong? — Gerri Peev (@GerriPeev) December 20, 2017 Andrew Mitchell MP: “These two admitted breaches of the ministerial code are dwarfed by the extraordinary behaviour of the police which fortunately is now under investigation” — Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) December 20, 2017 The morning after the night before and the big question surely is what is Damian Green going to do now? That it…

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Damian Green resigns

Damian Green resigns

Damien Green has resigned — Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) December 20, 2017 PM letter to Damian Green pic.twitter.com/CqFBmbXRer — John Rentoul (@JohnRentoul) December 20, 2017 Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

The restoration of hanging, corporal punishment & blue passports – the key post-Brexit priorities for Leave voters

The restoration of hanging, corporal punishment & blue passports – the key post-Brexit priorities for Leave voters

What YouGov found earlier in the year The point that Professor John Curtice made yesterday about the big dividing politics British politics has become between social liberals and social conservatives is very much backed up by the above polling published by YouGov earlier in the year. All the options that the sample was offered are in the chart above and as can be seen hanging and corporal punishment are at the top of the list for the voters followed by…

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Donald Trump’s exit year remains the most active political betting market

Donald Trump’s exit year remains the most active political betting market

But what a tedious unimaginative market As we move towards the end of the year I plan to run a series of posts looking at the current active betting markets of which there are not a lot. The top one is, inevitably, Donald Trump and which year he will eventually stop being president. As can be seen from the Betdata.io chart punters rate him as a 53% chance of getting to the end of his first term. This is a…

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The Republicans lose control of the Virginia House of Delegates after a seat moved to DEM by a single vote

The Republicans lose control of the Virginia House of Delegates after a seat moved to DEM by a single vote

An extraordinary fluke. After recounts Democrat wins Virginia House seat by just ONE vote meaning that its is now Dem 50 – GOP 50 – so the Republicans lose control Democrat wins Va. House seat in recount by single vote, creating 50-50 tie in legislature https://t.co/avLNYnlwVt — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 19, 2017 What has happened in a Virginian election this week is a story that will be remembered and repeated time and time again on election days as party…

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