Trump failing to complete a full term now odds-on as court moves start against former campaign chief

October 31st, 2017

The biggest current political betting markets on whether Trump is going to survive and him being there at the end of 2020 is looking a touch less likely with his campaign boss, Paul Manafort, due to make a first appearance later today.

On Betfair Trump not making it to the end of his term is now a 53% chance.

In broad terms the charges are that Manafort oversaw a money-laundering scheme involving more than $75 million from pro-Russia political groups.

It is the alleged help that Russian interests gave to Trump to help him defeat Hillary Clinton that have been dominating DC politics for months. These latest charges relate to tax avoidance, illegally working as for a foreign government and making false statements.

Those of us old enough to remember Watergate in the early 1970s remember how it was the cover-up that was Nixon’s final undoing.

These things can take a lot of time but the speed of the latest moves are what is striking.

As to the betting there are two key markets. Will the Donald fail to make it all the way to the end of 2020 and whet year will he depart.

Mike Smithson