Browsed by
Month: October 2017

As the pressure grows on Trump over Russian connections his core supporters rally round even more

As the pressure grows on Trump over Russian connections his core supporters rally round even more

Most Trump loyalists think Russia wanted Hillary Clinton to win A new US poll by Public Policy Polling finds record level of support for the President to be impeached. Now 49% say he should with 41% saying he shouldn’t. But it is not all one way traffic as this extract from the firm’s analysis of its news finding suggest. “Attempts by Trump world, Fox News, and other affiliated interests to try to turn the Russia news back onto Hillary Clinton…

Read More Read More

BMG finds 63% now want an elected House of Lords – up 15 points on two years ago

BMG finds 63% now want an elected House of Lords – up 15 points on two years ago

And 27% (+5) want it abolished completely Maybe its down to the Brexit-induced greater focus on constitutional affairs but support for overhauling the second chamber has soared over the past two years – from 48% backing partly- or fully-elected upper house in 2015, to 63% now, according to polling by BMG Research commissioned by the Electoral Reform Society. The poll found that 27% thought the second chamber should be abolished – up from 22% in 2015 – while only 10%…

Read More Read More

Trump failing to complete a full term now odds-on as court moves start against former campaign chief

Trump failing to complete a full term now odds-on as court moves start against former campaign chief

The biggest current political betting markets on whether Trump is going to survive and him being there at the end of 2020 is looking a touch less likely with his campaign boss, Paul Manafort, due to make a first appearance later today. On Betfair Trump not making it to the end of his term is now a 53% chance. In broad terms the charges are that Manafort oversaw a money-laundering scheme involving more than $75 million from pro-Russia political groups….

Read More Read More

In the TMay successor betting the BoJo price slumps

In the TMay successor betting the BoJo price slumps

Betdata.io The political day in the UK has been dominated by the Westminster harassment allegations and the spreadsheet listing the names of MPs, including ministers, said to have committed inappropriate behaviour. Whether this has driven the changes in the next CON leader betting I don’t know. The chart based on Betfair last trades at 2100 GMT is above. The trend has been moving away from the ex-mayor since the election when he stood as a 30% chance. The problem with…

Read More Read More

If these rumours turn out to be accurate I can see a 2018 general election happening

If these rumours turn out to be accurate I can see a 2018 general election happening

Tory MPs tell me they are deeply anxious sexual harassment scandal escalating to be worse than expenses, and devastating for May https://t.co/eroIk0FRiD — Robert Peston (@Peston) October 30, 2017 PM’s official spokesman has refused to say she is confident none of her Cabinet have committed sexual misconduct. A bizarre state. — Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) October 30, 2017 PM fears dossier on pervy MPs may force her into cabinet reshuffle. https://t.co/e96RDxi8yX — David Wooding (@DavidWooding) October 28, 2017 Not looking…

Read More Read More

Congratulations to TMay for surviving beyond October 29th

Congratulations to TMay for surviving beyond October 29th

She’s doing better than IDS in 2003 Yesterday was the 14th anniversary of what I considered to be one of the best political betting days ever where the best place to find out what was happening was to look at the prices on the Betfair Exchange. After taking over from William Hague two days after 9/11 Iain Duncan Smith struggled for more than 2 years to maintain the confidence of his party and that all finally snapped at the end…

Read More Read More

When Mrs May announces her decision to stand down or is removed

When Mrs May announces her decision to stand down or is removed

Announcing her departure at the Tory conference in October 2018 looks value at 12/1 I like this market from Paddy Power, a lot of the markets on Theresa May’s departure are when she formally stops being Prime Minister, this market is when she announces her intention to stand down (or loses a vote of confidence of the parliamentary party), not when she actually goes. For example if this market had existed for David Cameron, it would have paid out on…

Read More Read More

It’s Mueller time

It’s Mueller time

Exclusive: A federal grand jury has approved the first charges in the investigation led by special counsel Mueller https://t.co/ZVvg1WCjMs pic.twitter.com/fXsVZUILni — CNN (@CNN) October 28, 2017 JUST IN: Office of the Special Counsel will serve up an indictment Monday in connection with Russia probe, an official confirms to NBC News — NBC News (@NBCNews) October 28, 2017 Important news for those of us betting on whether Trump will be impeached or serve a full term CNN reported in the early…

Read More Read More