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Month: September 2017

PB / Polling Matters podcast: German election special & Labour conference reaction

PB / Polling Matters podcast: German election special & Labour conference reaction

On this week’s PB / Polling Matters podcast, Keiran is joined by Dr Roland Kappe of UCL to discuss the recent German election results and what happens next. Keiran and Roland look at the results that stood out, why the AfD did so well (and whether comparisons with UKIP are valid) plus what form of coalition Angela Merkel could form and why the German election result might be bad for Brexit negotiations. Elsewhere on the show, Keiran reviews the latest polls and…

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Conference and its aftermath could be BoJo’s best chance of moving against TMay & becoming PM

Conference and its aftermath could be BoJo’s best chance of moving against TMay & becoming PM

Could the end-game for Theresa start next week? Yesterday I heard directly the story the story that has been doing the rounds  that the Foreign Secretary, Boris Johnson, had already got the backing of 38 fellow CON MPs ready to send letters to the chairman of the 1922 committee calling for confidence vote on TMay’s leadership. If this is correct he needs just a few more if he is to pull the trigger to try to bring GE17 failure down….

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Looking at conference rhetoric – the politics of fear and the politics of hope

Looking at conference rhetoric – the politics of fear and the politics of hope

A guest slot by CycleFree It has become a truism that political campaigns based on fear are doomed to fail. Positive visions, hope and excitement are what we want, apparently. And there is some evidence to support this: Corbyn’s genuinely inspiring campaigning for what he has said and believed these last four (five?) decades, the increasingly desperate Remain campaign and, of course, May’s abysmal GE campaign, which wholly failed to explain why Corbyn’s choices and what they say about his…

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LAB takes 4% lead in new YouGov Times poll

LAB takes 4% lead in new YouGov Times poll

LAB takes 4% lead in new YouGov/Times pollCON 39 -2LAB 43 +1LD 7= — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 26, 2017 This could put even more pressure on TMay’s Manchester conference The polling that’s taken place since TMay’s much vaunted Florence speech on Brexit has not been good to the Tories although the numbers are all within the margin or error. Yesterday the Guardian ICM poll had LAB moving to a 2% lead after being level pegging. Tonight YuGov has LAB…

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If there was to be a new Brexit referendum then LAB voters would be overwhelmingly for REMAIN

If there was to be a new Brexit referendum then LAB voters would be overwhelmingly for REMAIN

Lots of talk at the LAB conference today of a second Brexit referendum. This comes amidst new GQRR polling that suggests more support for the idea including 70% of LAB voters. The chart above, based on the latest Opinium data, shows the splits by party support if such a move was to take place. Essentially the country remains totally split on the issue and no doubt this will figure strongly in Manchester next week at the Tory conference. What I…

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ICM finds Corbyn making ground against TMay across a range of key policy areas

ICM finds Corbyn making ground against TMay across a range of key policy areas

Guardian Team CON should be most worried about the economy numbers and pensioners During the election campaign in May ICM asked voters to rate May and Corbyn on a range of nine key policy areas as shown in the table above. At the time, of course, all appeared to be going well for the incumbent PM who looked set for a huge victory. In its latest Guardian poll ICM has revisited the questioning and finds that the position is nothing…

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Labour’s Brighton exuberance over Corbyn isn’t supported by his leader ratings

Labour’s Brighton exuberance over Corbyn isn’t supported by his leader ratings

Things have barely moved since June 8th Opinium – Leader Approval ratings From the David Cowling leader rating compilation. Opinium which asks on leader approval pic.twitter.com/H4eVHOc691 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 25, 2017 Ipsos-MORI – Leader Satisfaction Ratings David Cowling has just produced some interesting tables plotting party leader ratings change over 6 months. Ipsos-MORI Satisfaction pic.twitter.com/C4VJwXcoM4 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 25, 2017 The former BBC Political Research chief, David Cowling, has produced the above tables so we can…

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Nearly of third of current LAB voters not sure that Corbyn would make the best PM

Nearly of third of current LAB voters not sure that Corbyn would make the best PM

How solid is Labour's vote? Nearly a third of their 2017 voters are not sure Jeremy Corbyn would make the best Prime Minister. #Lab17 pic.twitter.com/XiQaQCmQyf — Joe Twyman (@JoeTwyman) September 25, 2017 The soft under-belly of LAB support Labour’s leader might seem to have conquered all before him following the party’s unexpected performance at GE17 but quite a number current LAB supporters appears to have doubts about the man is now into his third year as party leader. In the…

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