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Month: August 2017

Regrets: They’ve Had a Few

Regrets: They’ve Had a Few

Cyclefree on Blair, Cameron, May and Corbyn On Radio 4 Peter Hennessey has been interviewing politicians who are no longer in the front line and asking them to reflect on their careers, mistakes, and things they might have done differently.  Blair does not regret Iraq, his view still being that it is better (for whom one wonders, surveying the state of Iraq these last 15 years) for Saddam to have been deposed. Perhaps politicians are not the best at analysing…

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After another stormy period punters make it a 56% chance that Trump won’t survive a full first term

After another stormy period punters make it a 56% chance that Trump won’t survive a full first term

Returning once again to what continues to be the biggest political betting market in the UK at the moment – is Trump going to complete a full first term? This is very much driven by the news coming across the Atlantic and the latest is his pardon to ex-county sheriff, Joe Arpaio. As has been widely reported he’s is a very controversial figure,particularly for his immigration sweeps in targeted Latino neighborhoods, and the conditions in his jail. Six years ago…

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If the S Mirror’s right about TMay’s exit date then the 2/1 on Betfair is a great punt

If the S Mirror’s right about TMay’s exit date then the 2/1 on Betfair is a great punt

TMay planning to quit as PM on Aug 30 2019 that is if there's not a move against her earlier as there could https://t.co/h1gfWAmLKN — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 26, 2017 As August starts to wind up and we enter normal politics again a big story this morning is the one above in the Sunday Mirror suggesting that Theresa May has set the end of August 2019 as the time when she will cease to be Party leader and presumably…

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Punters make it a 77% chance that TMay’ll make it to the end of the year which seems about right

Punters make it a 77% chance that TMay’ll make it to the end of the year which seems about right

Will the PM face a challenge or not? In the immediate aftermath of the disappointing general election for the Conservatives George Osborne suggested that the the Prime Minister was “a dead woman walking” a view that was shared by many who expected an early resignation. The Tories, after all, are the party that is said to be most ruthless with a failing leader and in those few days after the election she was at her most vulnerable. Yet she didn’t…

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Gerrymandered congressional districts could save the House for the GOP

Gerrymandered congressional districts could save the House for the GOP

But a GOP-controlled House leaves Trump with fewer excuses for 2020 The Great Dealmaker has not had the greatest first seven months in the White House. No wall, no healthcare reform, a chaotic West Wing and innumerable self-inflicted PR gaffes are not an ideal start to a presidency. Ironically, the one president that Trump rates himself behind is perhaps the only one to have had a worse start: at least there’s been no civil war so far. Those failures and…

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Johnson’s refusal to back his boss on student immigration will surely lead to recriminations

Johnson’s refusal to back his boss on student immigration will surely lead to recriminations

Is Johnson on manoeuvres? His refusal to back PM on immigration data looks interesting https://t.co/AAoXqydrmv — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 25, 2017 Get ready for an intense 6 weeks of politicking We are nearly at the end of August and only weeks away from the conferences of the main parties. The most interesting one will be the Tories in Manchester which could just might be the prelude to a leadership challenge and contest. Mrs. May called the election three year…

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What’s next over Brexit? The question that no one is asking

What’s next over Brexit? The question that no one is asking

  In their seminal anthem, Busted reported back from the year 3000 that not much had changed (but we live underwater). I don’t propose to look that far into the future but let’s borrow a souped-up De Lorean and head for 2030. By then the current crop of politicians will have written their memoirs or be editing newspapers. Given geological timescales, we can expect the island of Britain still to be sitting off the mainland of Europe. With current rates…

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Vince Cable slams TMay over bogus student immigration figures which “came on her watch”

Vince Cable slams TMay over bogus student immigration figures which “came on her watch”

Bogus student visa figures "happened on May's watch" https://t.co/jOsaNoVzox — Liberal Democrats (@LibDems) August 24, 2017 Coalition battles revived Vince Cable, the LD leader who as Coalition Business Secretary had responsibility for universities, has attacked TMay, following the news that student immigration figures are nothing like on the scale that the government had previously thought. As reported in the media earlier new figures have been published based on exit checks from UK ports, that show that 97% cent of foreign…

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