Punters stick with the ICM/ComRes view of the election – not YouGov/Survation

June 5th, 2017

If the gamblers are right then it’s a 70+ CON majority

Two new lots of polling data out so far today reflecting the two sides of the polling divide that characterises GE2017.

The latest ICM, with its post-GE2015 turnout model has CON with a 11% lead which would see TMay meet her goal of having an increased majority. The YouGov model continues to have the lead at just 4% and seat projections suggesting that the Tories will be 20 seats short of a majority with almost exactly the same total as David Cameron achieved in 2010.

Got to feel sorry for pollsters. If their numbers are close together they’re accused of herding – if not they’re said to be “all over the place

Meanwhile a fierce debate goes on over which has got this right. Punters, however, are not phased by the polls showing a declining CON lead and continue to risk their money on a substantial CON majority.

Latest CON seats spreads SportingIndex 368-374 Spreadex 364-370

Latest LAB spreads SportingIndex 196-202 and Spreadex 198-204

Latest LD spreads SportingIndex 11-13 and Spreadex 11-13.5

Expect more polling in the next few hours.

Me – I’m not changing my big betting position that the Tories will below 393 seats.

Mike Smithson