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Month: May 2017

The jaws of victory. The Conservatives’ faltering campaign

The jaws of victory. The Conservatives’ faltering campaign

The wheels have come off the wagon for Team Theresa.  Just two weeks ago the blue team’s lead looked more fearsome than the north face of the Eiger.  Theresa May looked to be cruising to victory and the saboteurs were on track to be crushed. The stocks were sold; the press was squared: the middle class was quite prepared.  But the middle class were emphatically not prepared for the Tories’ social care policy, which seems to have gone down like…

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The election that looked boring and a certainty now becomes harder to predict

The election that looked boring and a certainty now becomes harder to predict

TONIGHT: Iconic psephologist @SirDavidButler tells @maitlis he's never seen such a big movement of opinion in election polls #newsnight pic.twitter.com/MSaQXOAykM — BBC Newsnight (@BBCNewsnight) May 26, 2017 I spent the whole of yesterday in the sweltering heat of central London discussing with one group after another the same subject – how GE2017 had suddenly become so much harder to predict. During the morning I was at an academic conference at the British Academy on the intriguing subject of whether June…

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Punters continue to sell CON seats on the spreads – now down to 102 majority with Spreadex

Punters continue to sell CON seats on the spreads – now down to 102 majority with Spreadex

The latest polling has caused a big sell of CON seats on the spread markets. With Spreadex it is now 373-379 seats. At the weekend the buy level was more than 400. SportingIndex has it slightly higher at 373-379 which means that my sell bet at 393 placed on Saturday night is now showing a nice profit. What’s nice about this form of betting is that you can take and pocket your profits well before the election has taken place….

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Mrs May’s extraordinary ratings honeymoon ended with the manifesto launch

Mrs May’s extraordinary ratings honeymoon ended with the manifesto launch

New YouGov polling just published had her dipping into negative territory One of the striking features of TMay’s period at Number 10 is how she has maintained positive leadership ratings throughput. Whether pollsters were asking about approval, favourability, satisfaction, or whether she was doing a good or bad job all the numbers were positive from the moment she became PM last July. That run ended in the aftermath of the launch of the controversial General Election manifesto a week last…

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YouGov has CON lead BELOW what it was at GE2015

YouGov has CON lead BELOW what it was at GE2015

CON lead down to 5% with @YouGov pic.twitter.com/udkAz2lgyv — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 25, 2017 There’s a new Times/YouGov poll that has LAB just 5% behind the Tories which s by far the smallest we have seen this year. To put this into context David Cameron won his majority in 2015 with a GB vote lead over LAB of 6.5%. This poll suggests that that could be narrowed. This latest poll was carried out yesterday and today and so fully…

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Tonight’s one local by-election

Tonight’s one local by-election

Shoeburyness on Southend on Sea (Ind defence, death of sitting member) Result of council at last election (2016): Conservatives 25, Labour 11, Independents 10, United Kingdom Independence Party 6, Liberal Democrats 2 (No Overall Control, Conservatives short by 3) Result of ward at last election (2016): Independent (Assenheim) 728 (29%), Conservative 607 (24%), Independent (Chalk) 527 (21%), United Kingdom Independence Party 309 (12%), Labour 236 (9%), Green Party 57 (2%), Liberal Democrats 50 (2%) EU Referendum Result (2016): REMAIN 39,348…

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Tories heading for 124 seat majority according to spread betting markets

Tories heading for 124 seat majority according to spread betting markets

With the campaign starting to get underway again it is perhaps worth reminding ourselves that we have a dearth of up to date polling. There’ve only three national surveys that were carried out after the CON manifesto launch last week. These have been ICM and the Survation online poll for the Mail on Sunday and the phone one for Good Morning Britain. We’ve also had the YouGov Wales poll which had LAB with a bigger margin over CON than EdM’s…

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Theresa May was right, this election should be about Brexit

Theresa May was right, this election should be about Brexit

The appalling events of Monday evening are dominating the election campaign. Young children and teenagers should be able to attend a pop concert without fear of being killed.  I struggle to understand the mind of a man that can choose to inflict so much pain and suffering on so many young people and their families.  Feelings are understandably running high: grief, anger, outrage and despair are mingled. Security is a primal concern.  The knowledge that there are people who walk…

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