Theresa’s Tories drop to their lowest level yet on the Commons seats spread markets

May 31st, 2017

And LAB buy level now above 200 seats

There’s been a big shake-up in the betting following the publication by the Times of YouGov’s new election model that suggests that Team Theresa could be net losers of seats a week tomorrow and not have a majority.

Latest CON seats spreads SportingIndex 365-371 Spreadex 365-371

Latest LAB spreads both SportingIndex 195-201 and Spreadex 196-202

Latest LD spreads both SportingIndex 12.5-14-5 and Spreadex 12-14.5

To put this into context. Just after the local and mayoral election earlier in the month the CON buy level was at 400 seats plus while LAB was in the 150s.

All this has happened on the day of the big all party debate which Corbyn has announced that he will be representing LAB. Mrs. May won’t be going and is sending Amber Rudd instead. Corbyn’s presence will certainly add to the occasion and the PM’s absence has become the big political story of the day.

In retrospect it looks like not going to the event might have een a serious mistake by Mrs. May. It could enhance Amber Rudd’s chances of being her successor.

Events from Cambridge are on BBC1 and start at 7.30pm.

Mike Smithson