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Month: April 2017

Riding the surge. Betting on a Conservative landslide

Riding the surge. Betting on a Conservative landslide

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If the polls are to be believed, the Conservatives are in for a spectacular night on 8 June.  ICM, YouGov and ComRes are all reporting national leads of more than 20% for the Conservatives – YouGov and ICM three times in the last week.  Labour seem in disarray, with the gaffes and questionable decisions coming in fast and thick.  Their morale is on the floor, with Labour MPs openly refusing to endorse Jeremy Corbyn for next Prime Minister.  There is…

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First wave of French second round polling gives it to Macron by 20% or more

First wave of French second round polling gives it to Macron by 20% or more

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Wikipedia Betting on last Sunday’s winner looks like free money After Sunday’s first round of voting in France all eyes are now on the second round that takes place on Sunday May 7th. Hypothetical matchups before Sunday had shown that Macron would have a big lead. The first post 2nd round polls, the ones featured above, still have him with a big margin but nothing like on the scale of what we were seeing before Sunday. This reflects the very…

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Farage might be giving GE2017 a miss but expect to see him on many leaflets

Farage might be giving GE2017 a miss but expect to see him on many leaflets

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The first week of the general election campaign has been characterised by the huge move to CON in the polls and also the number of big names who would have let it be known that they are leaving the political scene. What is also becoming striking is that UKIP is mounting nothing like a campaign that we have seen in the past. The party’s made it clear that it will not stand against strongly leave CON MPs and we’ve seen…

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UKIP’s collapse gives huge boost to CON in Wales. Now 10% ahead

UKIP’s collapse gives huge boost to CON in Wales. Now 10% ahead

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The blues heads for top Welsh party for first time since 1850 The sheer scale of the disaster facing Corbyn’s Labour is brought home in the latest YouGov Welsh poll for Cardiff University and ITV. The figures are in the chart. The Welsh academic and leading authority on Welsh politics, Prof Roger Scully, comments: “Only one poll this century (in July 2009, at the very nadir of Gordon Brown’s fortunes as Prime Minister) has had Labour lower in Wales during…

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Less than a week after Mrs. May’s GE2017 announcement YouGov’s Brexit “right/wrong” tracker moves to level-pegging

Less than a week after Mrs. May’s GE2017 announcement YouGov’s Brexit “right/wrong” tracker moves to level-pegging

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It did have Brexit “right” 4% ahead Given the overwhelming importance of the Brexit negotiations in Mrs May’s stated reason for the early General Election then it is important to continue to follow how voters now view that decision last June. The one regular tracking poll on this is the YouGov question featured above and as can be seen the split has been fairly stable since the first poll to take place shortly after Theresa May entered number 10 Downing…

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The geography of Emmanuel Macron’s first round victory

The geography of Emmanuel Macron’s first round victory

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So Le Pen isn’t going to be another Trump As it has turned out the polling in the French presidential election has proved to be pretty accurate. Macron has, as I write, 23.9% of the first round votes with Le Pen on 21.4%. The Betfair exchange betting now splits 88% to Macron with to 12% Marine Le Pen. It is now very hard to envisage the circumstances that have anybody other than the young former investment banker as the next…

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Exit poll says Macron and Le Pen make it into round two.

Exit poll says Macron and Le Pen make it into round two.

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?? #Presidentielle2017 ? Estimation Ipsos / @SopraSteria_fr à 20h du classement des candidats lors de ce premier tour pic.twitter.com/o6T4qBMGSq — Ipsos France (@IpsosFrance) April 23, 2017 Looks like the French have lost that lovin’ Fillon But given that both François Fillon and Jean-Luc Mélenchon are fewer than 2 points behind Le Pen, and we’ve not had any votes counted yet, don’t start spending winnings yet or write off those losses. Though if this exit poll is accurate I expect Macron to win…

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Are radical policies the answer to Labour’s slump?

Are radical policies the answer to Labour’s slump?

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On this week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast Leo Barasi talked about the state of the parties and the race ahead with Conor Pope of Progress and political consultant Laurence Janta-Lipinksi. You can listen to the episode below or by clicking here. Despite using Easter to announce several policies, Labour is making little effort to pretend it knows what it would do with power. The party’s website still invites visitors to “help shape our next manifesto” and Corbyn semi-loyalist Dawn Butler suggested…

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