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Month: April 2017

A week tonight and we have 2017’s first big set of elections

A week tonight and we have 2017’s first big set of elections

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Harry Hayfield looks forward 7 days So as there are no local by-elections this week, here’s the final part of my estimates for the local elections in Wales and Scotland. Wales As for the estimates for the English counties, I had a look at the by-elections in Wales since the referendum, tallied the changes on 2012 and noted if the council had voted to REMAIN or LEAVE and made the following observation. In REMAIN councils, the change was Lab -6%,…

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With six weeks to go today’s Commons seats spreads

With six weeks to go today’s Commons seats spreads

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SpreadEx CON 384-390 LAB 158-164 LD 25-28 UKIP 0.25-1.25 SNP 46-49 Sporting Index CON 384-390 LAB 162-168 LD 26-29 UKIP 0.25-1.25 SNP 47-50 As regular PBers will know my favourite form of election betting is that featured above – the Commons seats spreads where you buy and sell seats like shares. Two levels are quoted. The higher one is the buy price and the one is the sell one. This is a form of betting where the more you are…

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We have cross-over in YouGov’s BREXIT tracker: More now think it was wrong than right

We have cross-over in YouGov’s BREXIT tracker: More now think it was wrong than right

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How important will Brexit be on June 8th? The latest YouGov BREXIT tracker was published in the Times over-night and shows a move to people now saying that the referendum decision was wrong rather than right. This is a regular polling question that has been asked by YouGov in exactly the same manner since Theresa May became prime minister. Then, as the chart above shows, 4% more people thought Brexit was right than wrong. Now the “wrong” segment in leading…

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PB/Polling Matters podcast: Is a Tory landslide inevitable? And Vive le pollsters!

PB/Polling Matters podcast: Is a Tory landslide inevitable? And Vive le pollsters!

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  On this week’s podcast Keiran returns and is joined by Chris Hanretty from the University of East Anglia. Keiran and Chris celebrate the excellent performance of French pollsters last weekend and discuss the implications of Macron and Le Pen making the second round. Is a Macron victory now inevitable? What happens next and would a British version of ‘En Marche’ be successful? Keiran and Chris also discuss the seeming inevitability of a Conservative landslide in June and what might…

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We’ve moved sharply on from when class was the best pointer to voting intention

We’ve moved sharply on from when class was the best pointer to voting intention

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Now age, education and gender give a better guide This afternoon YouGov has published a series of charts to give us an idea about the electorate who will vote on June 8th. This will be the first election since analysis became possible when class was far less important. Age education and to an extent gender now the key measures as the charts demonstrate. Labour’s problem is that under Mr. Corbyn the working classes have ceased to support the party that…

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The first phone poll of the campaign has UKIP down to 4% and the Tories at 49%

The first phone poll of the campaign has UKIP down to 4% and the Tories at 49%

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Another indicator of a CON landslide This morning, in the London Evening Standard, we have the first telephone poll of the general election campaign. The figures are very much in line with the other polls that we’ve seen in the last week. The striking number in this latest is the UKIP share down to just 4% which I think the lowest share that the party has had in years. Clearly the main feature of this campaign has been Labour’s inability…

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Why we are all going to be able to get to bed earlier this election night

Why we are all going to be able to get to bed earlier this election night

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No simultaneous elections on June 8th means speedier counts One of the features of the June 8th General Election it is that no other elections are being held on the same day. This is in sharp comparison to all the general elections since 1992 when John Major went to the country in April four weeks before that year’s locals. This is important because it should have a big impact on the time it takes for the counts to proceed. If…

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Labour’s May 4th prospects are looking appalling in England, Wales and Scotland

Labour’s May 4th prospects are looking appalling in England, Wales and Scotland

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And UKIP are in for a pounding as well UKIP’s set to have more losses that its actually contesting Today I have been in London for the annual local elections briefing organised by the Political Studies Association. The panelists were Professors Colin Rawlings and Michael Thrasher for England with Rodger Scully for Wales and Professor John Curtice for Scotland. Rawlings and Thrasher focused on their by-election prediction model which just covers England and suggested that there’s a possibility that Labour…

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