Why the Tory lead might be even larger than the polling implies

April 28th, 2017


The Labour and Lib Dem vote is substantially softer than the Tory vote

In this month’s Ipsos MORI poll it found that the Labour and Lib Dem vote is softer than the Tory party vote, this came as a surprise to me. 

One of the reasons I’ve had doubts that the Tory lead is quite as huge as the polling implies is that some of the switchers to the Tories might bottle it on voting day, but look at that chart above, 78% of Tory voters have definitely decided to vote Tory, compared to just 56% of Labour voters and just 40% of Lib Dem voters.

So this makes me think if you’re betting on the spreads, or evaluating your position(s) Labour and the Lib Dems should be sells, and if you bought the Tories at say 378 and  they are currently 392 on Spreadex, you might want to cash out, but as ever, do your own risk, with spread betting the losses can be very large.

The question is can Labour and the Lib Dems find an electoral Viagra that will harden their support or will the Tory vote flop for some of the reasons I listed last week?