See full report on the latest ratings here. The Gallup picture is in broad alignment with a Quinnipiac survey which found 44% disapproving to 36% approving. These are quite remarkable figures. New Presidents usually enjoy a polling honeymoon. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet
There’s been a change in the Stoke central by-election betting with renewed interest in LAB and the move to Paul Nuttall, the UKIP leader, easing off. The big gap between UKIP and the main parties is that the latter have much more expertise and the basic infrastructure required to mount effectively FPTP election campaigns. UKIP, as I keep on pointing out, has never gained a Westminster seat except with defector incumbents. A critical element in contests like this is data….
How long will it take to restore internal discipline in the post-Corbyn era? “Damn your principles; stick to your party!” With such lofty dismissiveness did Disraeli once berate a colleague thinking of rebelling. It is not just hard but impossible to think of Jeremy Corbyn using like words, yet they are the currency of every successful parliamentary leader, if not always put so bluntly. Not just the leader either. For all the myths of party whips terrorising and bribing MPs…
Final 2 polling in French Presidential Election. If Macron makes final 2 he looks set to win but he's currently 3rdhttps://t.co/EeQ4equdzY pic.twitter.com/vOAuINymEp — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 27, 2017 Top 3 in the French Presidential race with latest odds pic.twitter.com/P0EGbCYCAh — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 27, 2017 Tweet
A good guide for Trump exit year punters So far quite a few bookies have got markets up on which year Trump will cease to be President. The options range from this year, 2017, until January 2025 which is when he would leave the White House after securing and serviing a second full term. But he’s made enough waves in his first few days for consideration to be given to the betting possibilities of him going earlier. These are the…
Kilmarnock East and Hurlford on East Ayrshire caused by the death of the sitting Scottish National Party member Result of council at last election (2012): Scottish National Party 15, Labour 14, Conservatives 2, Independent 1 (No Overall Control, Scottish National Party short by 2) Result of ward at last election (2012) : Emboldened denotes elected Scottish National Party 944, 1,126 (47%) Labour 1,054, 984 (46%) Conservative 326 (7%) EU Referendum Result (2016): REMAIN 33,891 (59%) LEAVE 23,942 (41%) on a…
BREXIT appears to have the least salience with LAB voters & C2DEs One of those involved in the LDs recent successes observed to me recently they were finding that those opposed to BREXIT have much stronger feelings about the issue than those who aren’t. In many ways this is understandable because they are against the status quo and everything is moving towards the UK leaving the EU. I’ve been pondering over this for some time and have been looking for…
Was the referendum decision right or wrong? On this week’s podcast, Keiran is joined by Labour blogger and political activist Jade Azim and Addin365 CEO and tech entrepreneur Suzy Dean to discuss the recent women’s march, feminism and whether Britain made a mistake in deciding to leave the European Union. This week’s podcast was particularly lively as Suzy and Jade hold very different views on feminism and Brexit. Jade attended the recent march in London and voted Remain whilst Suzy…