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The next recession

May 22nd, 2016

recession

Trying to predict the next recession has the danger making you sound like The Ancient Mariner but William Hill have a market up if the UK is going to have recession by the end of 2017 if you want to bet on the timing of it. I’m not an economist, so this piece should be viewed in that spirit.

Most of the economic mood music seems to indicate backing a recession occurring before the end of 2017 might be the best option, for example, back in January George Osborne warned of a cocktail of threats facing the UK economy, whilst earlier on this week it was confirmed the manufacturing sector is already in recession. 

Unsurprisingly confidence in George Osborne’s stewardship of the economy has plummeted since the general election, the recent Ipsos Mori poll found “One year on from the election of a Conservative majority in Westminster, Ipsos MORI’s Political Monitor finds a fall in the public’s ratings on the government’s management of the economy. Just under half (47%) say the government has done a bad job over the past year compared with 42% who say they have done a good job. In March 2015, 56% said the Coalition government was doing a good job, and 37% were critical.”

All of the above is before the issues of  the predicted economic apocalypses that is Brexit or a Eurozone contagion which could impact negatively on the UK economy,  For the sake of the country, I hope this is a bet I don’t collect on, “the recent strong growth in retail sales dispels gloom around UK economy” may indicate that backing the other side of this bet is the wisest course of action.

TSE