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The polling that shows LEAVE’s emphasis on “sovereignty” simply isn’t resonating

May 18th, 2016

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It’s been a big morning with EURef polling. First we had YouGov online showing a 4% IN lead on a revised methodology. Then then we had the May Ipsos phone poll in the Standard with IN extending its lead to 18%. That’s a huge margin and it is starting to look insurmountable.

This means that the three phone polls this week all have REMAIN extending its margin even though the numbers vary from pollster to pollster. The Ipsos lead is by far the biggest.

To me what is most striking about the Ipsos poll is the above chart. The sample was asked, entirely unprompted, to name the issues they regarded as important in coming to their decision on which way to go. Those asked could raise as many issues as they liked.

As you’d expect the economy and immigration occupy the top two slots – but just look at how poorly “Britain’s ability to make its own laws” rates. Just 14% named this.

The sovereignty response is so out of line with what appears to be the driving force of the BREXIT campaigns. Britain being able to rule itself with the encumbrance of Brussels underlines so much of their rhetoric. Just 6% of UKIP supporters named this as one of the decisive issues.

The latest EU Ref polling table.

EU Ref polling   Google Sheets

Mike Smithson